WFP: Iran War Risks Pushing 45 Million More People Into Hunger

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran risks triggering a sharp escalation in global hunger, with tens of millions of additional people projected to fall into acute food insecurity within months due to supply chain disruptions and rising costs.

Chief Operating Officer of WFP Carl Skau said an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger if the conflict continues through June 2026, pushing the global total beyond the current record of 319 million. The warning reflects compounding pressures from rising food, fuel and transport costs linked to disruptions that began after the February 28 escalation.

“Our analysis projects that if the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises,” Skau said. He added that the resulting increase would take hunger levels to “an all-time record.”

The crisis is being driven by disruptions to humanitarian supply routes and global commodity markets. WFP said shipping costs have already risen by 18% since February 28, with some routes forced to reroute, increasing delays and expenses.

Skau warned that fertilizer markets are also being affected at a critical moment. “Of immediate concern, global fertilizer markets are now being disrupted, just as sub-Saharan Africa heads into a planting season,” he said.

Countries such as Somalia and Kenya, which rely heavily on imports from the Gulf, are particularly exposed, with more than 25% to over 30% of fertilizer supplies sourced from the region.

The combined effect of oil price shocks and fertilizer disruptions is expected to drive food inflation, limiting access to basic commodities.

“The spike in global food, and fuel costs could leave millions of families priced out of stable foods,” Skau said.

WFP officials said the global food system was already under severe strain prior to the conflict. “Before this war, we were in a perfect storm where hunger has never been as severe as now,” Skau said, highlighting both the scale and depth of current food insecurity.

The agency warned that its own capacity to respond is being constrained. Higher operating costs mean reduced purchasing power for food assistance and cash transfers. “Higher costs mean that we can buy less food or provide less cash to beneficiaries,” Skau said.

The situation is particularly acute in countries already facing extreme conditions. WFP said it has been forced to cut food rations in famine-affected areas of Sudan, while in Afghanistan it is able to support only one in four acutely malnourished children.

The warning comes amid broader financial constraints on humanitarian operations. Skau said funding cuts, as donors shift resources toward defense priorities, have left aid agencies with limited flexibility to absorb new shocks.

He described the current disruption as potentially the most severe since the COVID-19 pandemic and the early stages of the Ukraine war in 2022, noting that the system now has fewer buffers.

“Our supply chains may really be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022,” he said, emphasizing the cumulative impact of rising costs, reduced funding and increasing demand.

The agency called for urgent international action to mitigate the knock-on effects of the conflict and prevent further deterioration in global food security.