Venezuela to Surpass Greece With World's Largest Restructuring for $240 Billion Debt Pile

Venezuela is poised to disclose a staggering $240 billion debt burden, initiating the largest sovereign restructuring in history following the U.S. military raid that ousted Nicolás Maduro in January.

The impending disclosure far exceeds market estimates, which previously put the country's liabilities at $150 billion to $200 billion, according to the Financial Times.

Interim leader Delcy Rodríguez intends to finalize a creditor agreement by the end of this year.

The deal is designed to reintegrate Caracas into international markets after a decade of isolation under the Maduro regime.

Surpassing Greece’s Default in 2012

U.S. investment bank Centerview Partners is advising Caracas on the restructuring. A comprehensive blueprint to restore debt sustainability is scheduled for publication in early July.

Venezuela will also release a macroeconomic framework later this month. The document will reveal that the national economy has contracted to approximately $100 billion, a sharp decline from $370 billion in 2012.

This dramatic economic contraction pushes Venezuela's debt-to-GDP ratio well above 200 percent. The sheer scale of the liabilities ensures the upcoming negotiations will surpass Greece's $200 billion default in 2012.

Bypassing the IMF

In a departure from typical sovereign debt overhauls, the International Monetary Fund has not authored the debt sustainability analysis.

Bondholders are expected to leverage this grim internal assessment to demand a substantial writedown on the value of their holdings.

Some political opposition figures argue that accelerating the process outside formal IMF channels weakens Venezuela's negotiating leverage.

The IMF confirmed it is not involved in the current restructuring process, although technical discussions regarding economic data have occurred since April.

Venezuelan bonds are currently trading near 55 cents on the dollar, up from 33 cents prior to Maduro's removal.

Complex Liabilities

The restructuring involves a highly complex web of international obligations. Government and state oil company PDVSA bonds represent the largest verified segment, totaling roughly $60 billion alongside $40 billion in post-default interest.

Unpaid interest continues to accumulate at an estimated $5 billion annually. Additional liabilities include $30 billion to $50 billion owed to oil companies and trade creditors.

Legal claims tied to property expropriations during the Hugo Chávez era account for more than $20 billion. Furthermore, Caracas owes up to $20 billion to China, $6 billion to Russia, and $4 billion to development banks.

Creditors are closely monitoring the country's crude output revival following the U.S.-brokered restoration of oil sales.

First-quarter balance of payments data indicated oil exports reached $5.5 billion, a notable increase from the final months of Maduro's administration.

Despite the interim government's aggressive timeline, some asset managers warn that the sheer complexity of the negotiations will likely drag the process into 2027.