Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed close advisers to prepare for the possibility that Israel’s parliament could dissolve months ahead of schedule, according to Ynet. The move quietly acknowledges the fragility of his 37th government even as he publicly insists it will serve its full term. Elections for the 26th Knesset are currently scheduled for Oct. 27, 2026, but internal preparations point to a potential vote as early as June, roughly four months sooner.

Netanyahu has also ordered groundwork for a Likud campaign operation, including assembling a team and preparing for party primaries that would need to be held within months under an accelerated timetable. These steps, taken behind the scenes, contrast with his consistent public message to ministers that the coalition will pass the next state budget and proceed to elections on schedule.

“He Does Not Want Discipline to Erode”

The prime minister’s dual-track posture is deliberate, aides and ministers say. “He tells everyone that elections will be held on time because he does not want discipline to erode or a sense that the government is at the end of its rope,” a senior government official said. The official added that while Netanyahu wants to “serve out the full term” and avoid losing “even a single day in office,” Likud is nonetheless preparing for the possibility that the Knesset could be forced to dissolve soon.

In private conversations, Netanyahu has voiced confidence that legislation granting exemptions from mandatory military service to ultra-Orthodox men will pass. Yet in narrower consultations, political sources say he acknowledges the coalition could unravel quickly if it fails to pass either the draft law or the state budget, two votes that carry automatic dissolution risks.

Draft Law as Coalition Fault Line

The immediate pressure point is the draft legislation concerning ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, men. Friction with ultra-Orthodox parties has intensified, while unease has grown within Likud itself among lawmakers uncomfortable with the exemption framework being discussed in the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. On Monday, the coalition was forced to pull legislation from the parliamentary agenda after ultra-Orthodox parties again signaled they would not support it.

Political officials say the stalemate has deepened amid reports of arrests of draft-evading ultra-Orthodox youths, further inflaming tensions. While none of the coalition partners favor early elections, officials warned that continued deadlock could make dissolution unavoidable despite shared incentives to avoid it.

Ministers Campaign While Denying It

Senior ministers echo Netanyahu’s public line that elections will be held as scheduled, yet their actions suggest parallel campaign positioning. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has advanced reforms to the dairy market and taxation on overseas purchases.

The pattern of policy acceleration, combined with Netanyahu’s quiet instructions to prepare for a June scenario, underscores a government managing day-to-day governance while hedging against collapse.