Le Pen Leads France’s 2027 Race as Mélenchon Reaches Every Runoff

The online survey of 2,101 registered voters, conducted Nov. 3–5, 2026 for M6 and RTL, shows the National Rally leader consolidating a wide first-round lead while France Unbowed’s candidate holds second place as the political centre fragments ahead of next year’s election, Reuters reported Monday.

In all five lineups tested, Le Pen would take between 34% and 36% of first-round votes — up one to two points from the previous Toluna Harris wave, according to the pollster. Mélenchon is projected at 18% or 19% and would reach a runoff against her in every scenario.

Runoff Advantage for Le Pen

Second-round matchups give Le Pen a clear edge. She would defeat Mélenchon 68% to 32%, beat centre-left hopeful Raphaël Glucksmann 60% to 40%, and defeat former prime minister Édouard Philippe 58% to 42%, the report shows.

Independently of how they intend to vote, 48% of respondents said they expect Le Pen to win the presidency, compared with 17% for Mélenchon and 11% for Philippe.

Centre and Right Struggle for a Champion

Among other candidates, Philippe scores between 11% and 14% depending on the lineup, Glucksmann between 11% and 13%, and former prime minister Gabriel Attal between 6% and 10%. Cannes Mayor David Lisnard rises to about 9% when tested alongside centre and right rivals, while Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau remains in the mid-single digits.

The fieldwork closed before France’s Nov. 7 cost-of-living protests. As President Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term winds down, Reuters noted a hollowed-out centre that has opened space for hardline parties on both flanks.

Clash Report has tracked Mélenchon’s campaign as LFI unveiled his 2027 program, pledging a NATO exit and earlier retirement and as he pledged French naval escorts for citizen flotillas to Gaza. On the far right, Le Pen has promised an EU “trial of strength” if elected.