Estonia's Intelligence Chief Claims Putin is Just Playing for Time

Russia’s engagement in U.S.-brokered talks on ending the war in Ukraine is being driven less by compromise than by calculation, according to Estonia’s top intelligence official, who argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin believes time, pressure, and selective cooperation can still tilt the conflict in Moscow’s favor.

The assessment challenges optimistic U.S. messaging around diplomacy and underscores a widening gap between European intelligence views and Washington’s public posture.

Strategic Delay, Not Compromise

Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said Moscow has “absolutely no discussion” about how to really cooperate with the U.S. “in a meaningful way” and instead sees negotiations as a tactical pause.

Speaking ahead of the release of Estonia’s annual security report, Rosin said Russian internal discussions show officials remain convinced Washington is their “main enemy,” even as talks continue. The war, now approaching its fourth year, is still viewed in the Kremlin as winnable, at least in theory.

Rosin said Putin “in his head, still thinks that he can actually militarily win (in Ukraine) at some point,” reflecting a leadership mindset detached from battlefield realities.

While Russian officials publicly insist they want a negotiated settlement, Rosin said there is little evidence of readiness to compromise on core demands.

“Outsmart Everybody” Calculus

According to Rosin, Putin believes he can “outsmart everybody,” including the United States, by dragging out talks while sustaining military pressure. He suggested this confidence is reinforced by distorted reporting inside Russia.

Lower-level officials and commanders, Rosin said, better understand “how bad it is actually on the ground,” while senior figures receive overly positive assessments, including claims of capturing Ukrainian settlements that were not, in fact, taken.

This dynamic, Rosin said, produces reports to Putin that are “much more optimistic” than reality, because the Russian leader only wants to see success. As a result, economic strain, casualties, and battlefield setbacks are discounted in favor of a narrative of eventual victory.

Washington Sees Momentum

A White House official pushed back on Rosin’s assessment, saying U.S. negotiators have made “tremendous progress” toward ending the war. The official cited a recent agreement in Abu Dhabi involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia to release more than 300 prisoners, calling it evidence that diplomacy is advancing.

Prisoner exchanges have occurred sporadically since May, but no breakthroughs have emerged on territorial or security guarantees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that Washington has given both sides a June deadline to reach a settlement. U.S. President Donald Trump has previously set multiple deadlines over the past year, several of which passed without tangible consequences.

Europe’s Broader Alarm

European concern extends beyond diplomacy. On Feb. 5, Zelensky warned that if Ukraine does not stop Russia will invade Europe, adding that “the range of their missiles is unlimited; they will strike everywhere.”

He also said Putin is “currently only afraid of Trump,” arguing that U.S. economic pressure, sanctions, and weapons give Washington leverage that Europe lacks. Asked whether Putin fears European states, Zelensky replied, “Yes, he is not afraid of Europeans.”

Estonia’s intelligence assessment tempers that alarm in one respect. Rosin reiterated comments made on Dec. 30, 2025, that Russia shows no intent to attack the Baltic states or NATO in the near term and that Moscow “respects NATO” and avoids direct escalation. Still, he said Russia remains dangerous as it rebuilds military capacity and pursues its objectives in Ukraine.

Fiona Hill, a former U.S. intelligence officer and adviser to Trump, said both Trump and Putin may be “being told what they want to hear” by advisers. She questioned whether U.S. envoys fully grasp Kremlin positions, especially amid reports of meetings without State Department translators.

For now, European intelligence agencies remain unconvinced that Moscow’s endgame is peace.