Estonia Warns of Russian Military Buildup Aimed at Shifting Europe’s Balance

Russia is rapidly rebuilding its military capabilities in an effort to alter the balance of power in Europe, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said on Tuesday, as European countries increase defence spending and security cooperation.

Assessment of Military Intentions

The intelligence service said Russia does not intend to launch a military attack on any NATO country this year or next. However, it said Moscow is focused on rebuilding its armed forces at speed as Europe strengthens its defence posture.

Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, said Europe must continue investing in defence and internal security to ensure Russia concludes it cannot succeed against NATO states.

Concerns Over European Rearmament

Rosin said Russian leadership is closely watching Europe’s military preparations and is concerned that European states could develop the capacity to conduct independent military action against Russia within two to three years.

According to the report, Russia’s current objective is to delay and hinder Europe’s rearmament efforts.

Weapons Production and Ukraine War

The intelligence service said Russia’s ammunition production is expanding rapidly, allowing it to build reserves for potential future conflicts while continuing military operations in Ukraine.

The report added that any Russian attack on Estonia would likely involve coordinated drone operations across land, air and sea, targeting the entire country simultaneously.

Relations With the United States

Estonian intelligence said the Kremlin continues to view the United States as its main global adversary but is portraying a willingness to cooperate in order to push for the lifting of U.S. sanctions.

The report said Russia aims to exploit the new U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations and pursue an outcome that would formalise Ukraine’s defeat.

Despite signs of diplomatic engagement, the report said Moscow’s strategic objectives remain unchanged, including weakening NATO and reshaping Europe’s security framework.

China’s Role

The intelligence service said China views Russia as a strategic partner that can help marginalise Western influence and provide energy supplies in the event of sanctions or a maritime blockade linked to a conflict over Taiwan.

The report said Russia and China continue to cooperate on military technology research, warning that concessions to Moscow would also advance Beijing’s global ambitions.