The THAAD system, designed to intercept ballistic missiles during their terminal flight phase, was heavily relied upon to defend Israel during its confrontation with Iran. While the defense of an ally was viewed as a legitimate mission, experts warn that such a deep draw from U.S. stockpiles has strategic consequences elsewhere—most notably in the Pacific.

A senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, Sidharth Kaushal, stated: “From a narrowly military standpoint, the Chinese are absolutely the winners. Two years of escalation in the Middle East have consumed U.S. capabilities the Indo-Pacific command may find hard to replace.”

The U.S. produced just 11 THAAD missiles last year, and with increasing global tensions—from Taiwan to the Red Sea—defense analysts argue the Pentagon must significantly ramp up output to maintain credible deterrence.

Pentagon Downplays Risks, But Budget Figures Tell Another Story

While the Pentagon attempted to reassure the public, Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson said the U.S. military remains “the most powerful it has ever been.” However, internal projections show a modest pace of replenishment. A total of 49 new missiles are expected between 2025 and 2026—far below what would be needed to replace a 25% reduction.

The THAAD system, operational since 2010, has ground-, sea-, and air-based components and is currently deployed in Israel, South Korea, Romania, and the UAE. The Israel-Iran conflict marked the most extensive operational use of the system to date.

Reports indicate that despite claims of success, U.S. intelligence assessed the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities only delayed the program by months, not years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe later contradicted this, asserting the metal conversion facility strike “set back Iran’s nuclear program by years.”

Experts remain divided, but most agree that the cost and scale of missile defense operations in the Middle East could soon impact U.S. strategic bandwidth elsewhere unless production and policy planning are swiftly recalibrated.