U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio convenes a crucial ministerial meeting with Quad partners—India, Japan, and Australia—on Tuesday, aiming to reinforce collective resistance to China’s growing assertiveness. However, ongoing tensions stemming from Donald Trump’s tariff policies and aggressive bilateral demands are likely to dominate discussions.

The gathering comes at a moment when allies remain unsettled. President Trump’s global tariff campaign has spared none of the Quad partners, leaving wounds that continue to shape diplomatic tone. Although unified in concern over Beijing’s regional posture, the Quad must reconcile its internal strains.

Defense, Trade Tensions Put Allies on Edge

Japan, a key U.S. Indo-Pacific ally, has postponed its annual 2+2 ministerial dialogue with Washington amid American pressure to further hike its defense spending. Reports suggest this demand originated from Pentagon official Elbridge Colby, who has also rattled Australian officials by reviewing the AUKUS submarine pact.

India is also frustrated. New Delhi rejected Trump’s assertion that his intervention in April helped avert a major conflict with Pakistan following deadly attacks on Indian tourists in Kashmir. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized maintaining a “positive trend” in U.S. ties, but noted “relationships will never be free of issues.”

U.S. Focus on Indo-Pacific at Risk

Rubio’s meeting is his second Quad engagement since taking office in January, underlining the Indo-Pacific’s centrality to U.S. strategy. However, Trump’s distraction by conflicts in the Middle East, particularly Iran-Israel tensions, has diluted American diplomatic bandwidth in the region.

Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson, insisted the Quad remains committed to “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” emphasizing shared goals in maritime security, supply chains, and sovereignty defense.

Strategic Stakes vs. Political Hurdles

Analysts warn that personal frictions and erratic U.S. diplomacy may complicate broader strategic alignment. Arthur Sinodinos, former Australian ambassador to the U.S., said Canberra is seeking clarity on the U.S. stance on AUKUS and trade. Nicholas Szechenyi of CSIS noted that the post-summit U.S.-Japan agenda lacks tangible outcomes, while Richard Rossow pointed to unfilled U.S. diplomatic posts as hampering day-to-day India engagement.

Despite optimism, the Quad faces a familiar challenge: aligning diverse national interests amid shifting global priorities and domestic political pressures.