The United States' planned withdrawal of major scientific funding in Antarctica has sparked concern among international observers, who warn it could embolden rival powers like China and Russia and threaten the fragile peace enshrined by the Antarctic Treaty. With 70% of polar research funding potentially vanishing in 2026 under President Trump’s budget, scientists and diplomats alike fear a long-term erosion of U.S. influence on the continent.

Antarctica has long been governed by a unique treaty system that forbids military activity and promotes science and cooperation. But with geopolitical tensions rising globally, observers now see similar dynamics playing out near the South Pole. China and Russia are expanding their scientific outposts, and British officials have raised concerns over possible oil prospecting disguised as research.

Science Retreat Could Signal Strategic Decline

Bill Muntean, former U.S. head of the Antarctic Treaty delegation, said the U.S. has already been retreating from Antarctic activities, failing to upgrade infrastructure or maintain logistics. With science being the main form of U.S. soft power in Antarctica, budget cuts risk creating a vacuum. “If China is rising and the U.S. is decreasing, that will be read as China taking our place,” said Evan Bloom, a former State Department official.

Proposed cuts would decommission the last dedicated U.S. research vessel and delay facility upgrades. While military spending is rising, critics warn that fewer scientific vessels alongside more military ships could appear as militarization, violating the Treaty’s spirit.

Legal Stability Not Guaranteed

While no direct treaty violations have been documented, experts such as Dr. Ryan Burke caution that Antarctica shares risk factors common to regions that eventually become conflict zones: contested claims, valuable resources, and weakening international agreements. “To say it won’t happen in Antarctica, when the same conditions exist, is ignorant,” he said.

At the recent Antarctic Treaty meeting in Milan, discussions stalled on key topics due to broader geopolitical tensions. As U.S. commitment wanes, the future of both science and diplomacy on the continent is increasingly uncertain.