Following a catastrophic war with Israel, Hezbollah has begun reevaluating its military doctrine and considering reducing its arsenal, a dramatic shift for a group long seen as one of the Middle East’s most powerful non-state armed actors.

Three sources close to the Iran-backed group told Reuters that Hezbollah is engaged in confidential internal discussions, including small committee meetings, to assess its future military and political posture. The review follows the death of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, widespread battlefield losses, and the loss of crucial regional allies.

Hezbollah’s traditional strength has now become “a weak point,” one official said. The group is reportedly considering surrendering missile and drone stockpiles in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and an end to Israeli strikes. However, it plans to retain lighter arms and anti-tank weapons as a deterrent.

A Changed Regional Landscape

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, once a key conduit for Iranian weapons, and Tehran’s own struggles after its conflict with Israel, have further weakened Hezbollah’s support base.

Israeli airstrikes during the war severely damaged Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership. Though a truce was reached in November, violations persist and Israeli forces continue operations in the north.

Domestic and International Pressures Mount

Lebanon’s new U.S.-backed government and military are enforcing stricter controls, including tighter security at Beirut airport, ending Hezbollah’s previously unchallenged control there. Lebanon’s foreign minister has stated that no reconstruction aid will come until Hezbollah disarms.

Meanwhile, financial constraints have reduced Hezbollah’s social services. Some supporters report receiving cheques that cannot be cashed, and free medication programs have been scaled back.

Retaining Influence and Avoiding Disarmament

Despite setbacks, Hezbollah remains influential. It won recent local elections alongside the Amal Movement and is preparing for what it sees as an "existential" national vote in 2026. Disarmament remains a red line for many of its supporters, who view the group as essential for Shi’ite political identity and resistance to Israel.

“Hezbollah is the backbone of the Shi’ites,” said Um Hussein, the mother of a slain fighter. “Even if it is weak now.”

A Defining Moment for Hezbollah’s Future

Analysts suggest Hezbollah is struggling to balance military necessity, popular legitimacy, and external pressure. Nicholas Blanford of the Atlantic Council noted, “They’ve faced challenges before, but not this number simultaneously.”

Though Hezbollah's DNA is rooted in armed resistance, the current crisis could force a profound transformation — or renewed conflict.