Tehran Weighs Strikes on US Military Bases in Europe If Trump Escalates War

Tehran is actively assessing retaliatory military strikes against U.S. defense assets stationed in southeastern European nations, including Bulgaria, should President Donald Trump escalate the conflict, according to regime insiders.

Bulgarian authorities granted approval last month for American aerial refueling aircraft to operate from Bezmer air base, placing the installation among potential targets under consideration by Tehran.

‘Any Base Can Be a Legitimate Target’

Retaliatory planning in Tehran has also factored in U.S. operations utilizing facilities in Greek Cyprus, following a March drone attack on a British installation on the island.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps previously warned host nations that "any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target."

Iranian officials maintain that European facilities enabling American combat sorties will bear direct exposure if Washington carries out threats against domestic energy facilities and transport links.

"Should the U.S. go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region and hit Europe too," one regime insider told the Financial Times.

Hardliners Consolidate Authority

Strategic calculations in Tehran have hardened following the failure of a June memorandum of understanding. Subsequent maritime engagements in the Strait of Hormuz led to mutual violations, retaliatory exchanges, and an American naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Diplomatic engagement remains completely stalled, with President Trump confirming that no discussions are underway or scheduled.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has elevated key hardline figures to top defense posts, including former Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei.

Regime insiders characterized recent precision strikes on an American outpost in Jordan, which resulted in three U.S. fatalities, as a deliberate demonstration of extended-range targeting capabilities intended to signal European governments hosting Pentagon assets.

Present but Technically Constrained Risk

Western defense analysts evaluate the conventional missile risk to southeastern Europe as present but technically constrained.

Tehran maintains medium-range ballistic arsenals such as the Shahab series, though experts note that payload capacity and terminal accuracy degrade substantially beyond 2,000 kilometers.

Beyond land-based infrastructure in southeastern Europe, Iranian armed forces have examined disrupting underwater fiber-optic infrastructure traversing the Strait of Hormuz to inflict economic costs in the event of an expanded U.S. campaign.

While air defense networks in regional NATO partners, including Türkiye, have previously intercepted Iranian ballistic launches, defense officials in Tehran maintain that further American attacks will prompt retaliatory operations outside the regional theater.