Union at Breaking Point: Scottish, Welsh, Irish Leaders to Demand Independence

The pro-independence leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will meet in Cardiff on Monday to sign a joint declaration asserting their nations’ right to self-determination, opening a coordinated challenge to the existing U.K. constitutional settlement.

John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Michelle O’Neill will use the summit to press the case for future independence votes.

Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein’s president and leader of the opposition in Ireland, is also expected to attend, according to The Telegraph.

A Joint Constitutional Push

The meeting comes as pro-independence parties hold power across all three devolved nations for the first time.

Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Welsh Senedd in May, putting ap Iorwerth into office as First Minister.

The SNP retained its position as Scotland’s dominant party despite losing six Holyrood seats, while Sinn Fein has led Northern Ireland’s devolved government since O’Neill became First Minister in 2024.

The leaders are expected to sign both a joint declaration on self-determination and a memorandum committing their parties to closer cooperation.

The agreement will cover the economy, energy, Europe and international cooperation, as well as constitutional change.

Swinney said the political alignment across the devolved nations showed that the existing settlement could not endure.

“For the first time ever, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are led by pro-independence first ministers. There could be no clearer sign that the status quo is not sustainable, and that Westminster must prepare for a post-UK future.”

Pressure on Westminster

The summit follows comments by Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggesting another Scottish independence referendum could be possible if there were a “clear consensus” for one.

At Prime Minister’s Questions, Burnham said the conditions for a vote in Scotland were “exactly the same situation in Scotland” as in Northern Ireland.

Under the Good Friday Agreement, a referendum on Irish reunification should be called if it “appears likely” that a majority in Northern Ireland would vote to leave the U.K.

The Cardiff gathering is intended to increase pressure on Burnham after those remarks.

Swinney said Burnham was confronting the prospect of presiding over the end of the union.

“The momentum behind serious constitutional change is undeniable. Andy Burnham must now be facing up to the idea that he will go down in history as the final prime minister of the United Kingdom.”

Trump Enters Irish Unity Debate

The summit will take place two days after U.S. President Donald Trump said during a visit to Dublin that he would “love” to see a united Ireland.

Trump described Northern Ireland joining the Republic of Ireland as “a great thing” and asked: “How can it be bad?”

His comments came as nationalist parties intensified their demands for constitutional change across the U.K.

Sinn Fein is expected to argue in Cardiff that preparations for a potential reunification vote should accelerate.

A party source said: “Irish unity is not a distant aspiration. The work of building the new Ireland must begin now.”

Europe and Economic Powers

The planned memorandum will also set out common positions on Europe.

The three parties are expected to agree that their nations should ultimately be inside the EU, Scotland and Wales as independent members, and Northern Ireland through reunification with the Republic of Ireland.

They will also commit to strengthening ties with European neighbors as they pursue their respective constitutional objectives.

Economic policy will form another part of the agreement, with the parties expected to argue that the U.K.’s current economic model is failing Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Plaid Cymru is also expected to use the summit to demand greater control over taxation and spending.

Its proposals include transferring Crown Estate revenues to Wales, replacing the Barnett Formula with a more generous funding settlement and devolving additional powers over areas including policing and rail funding.

Burnham Rejects Immediate Referendum

Despite his comments on the conditions that could justify a future vote, Burnham has ruled out another Scottish independence referendum before the next general election.

In a letter to Swinney, he said there was “no consensus for an independence referendum in Scotland and nor is there a clear basis to suggest that a majority of people in Northern Ireland presently wish to separate from the United Kingdom.”

Burnham also cited Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitment against Scottish independence and another referendum.

“As I made clear to you personally when we met recently in Glasgow, independence and a referendum are off limits as it would take our focus away from growing the economy and helping families with the cost of living.”

The Cardiff summit will nevertheless give the three devolved administrations a platform to formalize political cooperation and place self-determination at the center of their dealings with Westminster.