Sami Fakhouri, the IFRC's Head of Delegation in Afghanistan, said on Tuesday that recent returns have surged following military escalations between Iran and Israel. “We are anticipating that an additional one million people, possibly more, may return from Iran to Afghanistan by the end of this year,” Fakhouri told reporters in Geneva.

According to UN data, more than 1.2 million Afghans have already been returned from Iran since January. Many of the deportees had been living in Iran for years, and are now arriving homeless and without support. “The majority didn't have a say in coming back. They were put on buses and driven to the border,” Fakhouri added.

Humanitarian System Faces Critical Gaps

The influx is deepening Afghanistan’s existing humanitarian emergency. The IFRC launched a 25 million Swiss franc ($31.4 million) appeal to provide immediate assistance at border zones and transit camps, but Fakhouri noted that only 10% of the funding goal has been met.

Babar Baloch, spokesperson for the UN refugee agency, reported that more than 50,000 people crossed the border from Iran into Afghanistan on July 4 alone. Aid groups are also raising alarms over family separations and the psychological toll of forced return. “The psychological scars are going to stay with Afghans who have been made to come back to the country in this way,” Baloch warned.

The deportations from Iran come on top of hundreds of thousands already pressured to return from Pakistan earlier this year, further destabilising the region and exhausting relief operations on the ground.