Lebanon’s fragile political consensus is once again at a breaking point as the government prepares to formally debate the disarmament of Hezbollah in a cabinet session scheduled for Tuesday. This marks the first time the controversial issue has been officially placed on the agenda, escalating what some see as a pivotal moment for Lebanese sovereignty and state authority.

The move follows growing domestic pressure and increased demands from France and the United States for the Lebanese government to assert full control over its territory and security institutions. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared that “decisions of war and peace must belong solely to the state,” implicitly targeting Hezbollah’s autonomous military structure.

Hezbollah Warns of “Suicidal Path”

Justice Minister Adel Hammoud sparked fierce debate after warning that Hezbollah’s refusal to surrender its weapons is akin to “choosing suicide” and “dragging Lebanon to a dark fate.” Hezbollah responded by accusing the government of playing into foreign agendas and stoking internal conflict. MP Ali Fayyad called the move part of a broader Israeli plot to undermine Lebanon.

Concerns are mounting that Shiite factions including Hezbollah and Amal will boycott the session, which could deprive the cabinet of its sectarian legitimacy under Lebanon’s complex political system.

Strategic Calculations and Armed Balance

Hezbollah insists its weapons remain essential to defend against Israeli aggression and maintain a deterrent balance along the southern border. Some analysts argue the Lebanese army is not yet capable of taking over Hezbollah’s military role. “The heavy weapons will not be handed over, as they are seen as vital to Israel’s security equation,” political analyst Hammoudan said during a televised interview.

He added that previous agreements for Hezbollah to surrender some arms were never reciprocated by Israel, and that the group will not initiate disarmament unilaterally.

No Breakthrough Expected, But Stakes Are Rising

Tuesday’s cabinet session is expected to be one of many future discussions rather than a conclusive showdown. Still, its symbolic weight is significant. President Joseph Aoun reportedly supports the dialogue but has cautioned against inflammatory rhetoric, warning that the situation is “too delicate for provocations.”

The question now facing Lebanon is whether it can reclaim full sovereignty and unify its defense policies—or whether it will continue to drift in a state of fragmented authority.