JD Vance: Iran Diplomacy Stalled by Inability to Reach Khamenei

Speaking on The Megyn Kelly Show, Vance described Iran as uniquely difficult to engage diplomatically, noting that formal government officials do not hold ultimate authority. According to him, this creates a structural barrier absent in dealings with other geopolitical rivals.

“The person who makes the decisions in Iran is the Supreme Leader. The president doesn’t really matter,” Vance said, adding that communication typically runs through the foreign minister, who in turn answers to Khamenei.

Vance contrasted Iran with countries such as Russia and China, where U.S. presidents can communicate directly with decision-makers. “Trump can pick up the phone and call Putin. He can pick up the phone and call Xi,” he said, calling it “bizarre” that such direct engagement is impossible with Iran’s top leadership.

Comparison With Venezuela and Regime Complexity

Vance rejected comparisons between Iran and other authoritarian systems, arguing that Tehran’s power structure is far more entrenched and diffuse. Unlike Venezuela, he said, Iran’s challenges cannot be addressed by removing a single figure.

“The regime goes well beyond the Ayatollah. It’s not like Venezuela where you take Maduro. It’s a lot more complex,” Vance said, emphasizing that Iran’s institutional framework complicates any external diplomatic or political strategy.

Nuclear Focus and Military Deterrence

According to Vance, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the central objective of U.S. policy. He warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would likely prompt immediate regional escalation.

“If the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians,” he said, arguing that proliferation risks would extend far beyond Iran itself.

Vance also underscored that while U.S. President Donald Trump prefers non-military solutions, all options remain on the table. “Trump is going to try to accomplish what he can through non-military means,” he said, adding that military action would be considered only if deemed unavoidable.

Iraq Lessons and Regime Change

Vance said Trump remains wary of repeating the mistakes of the Iraq war, stressing that forced regime change is not the administration’s preferred path. However, he noted that a shift driven internally by Iranians could alter the diplomatic landscape.

“If Iranians took over their own country and had a government that was much more friendly to the United States of America, would that be a good thing? Absolutely,” Vance said, while reiterating that Washington’s primary concern remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Broader World Order and Strategic Concerns

Beyond Iran, Vance said global power dynamics are shifting, with Trump prepared to challenge long-standing alliance structures. He argued that NATO has already undergone significant change under Trump’s leadership, describing the alliance’s earlier posture as overly dependent on Washington.

Vance also criticized European allies for what he described as mixed messaging toward the United States and raised strategic concerns about Greenland, warning that control of the territory by Russia or China could undermine U.S. missile defense capabilities.