Deterrence Signals to Neighbors

Iran has warned regional states hosting U.S. forces that American military bases would be targeted if Washington launches strikes against Iranian territory, according to a senior Iranian official speaking to Reuters on Wednesday. The warning reflects Tehran’s effort to deter U.S. intervention as President Donald Trump escalates rhetoric in support of protesters challenging Iran’s religious leadership. The message was delivered to multiple regional capitals, signaling that any conflict would have immediate cross-border implications rather than remaining confined to Iran.

The Iranian official said Tehran explicitly informed countries “from Saudi Arabia and UAE to Turkey” that U.S. bases on their soil would be considered legitimate targets in the event of American military action.

U.S. Force “Posture Adjustments”

Three diplomats told Reuters that some U.S. personnel had been advised to leave Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar by Wednesday evening. Al Udeid hosts the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command and is one of the largest American military installations in the Middle East. One diplomat characterized the move as a “posture change” rather than an “ordered evacuation,” underscoring that there were no visible preparations for a full-scale withdrawal.

Unlike last year, when U.S. troops were visibly moved to nearby civilian facilities in the hours before Iran launched missiles at Al Udeid in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear targets, there were no comparable signs of mass movement.

Escalation Amid Protest Crackdown

The regional warning comes against the backdrop of intensifying unrest inside Iran which according to a rights group claimed more than 2,600 lives due to government crackdown. Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene, vowing “very strong action” if Iranian authorities execute protesters. In a CBS News interview on Tuesday, Trump encouraged Iranians to keep protesting and declared “help is on the way.”

Iranian authorities have accused the United States and Israel of fomenting the unrest, describing those involved as terrorists.

It’s not yet clear if the U.S. would go ahead with an attack, though according to an Israeli assessment cited by Reuters, Trump has decided to intervene. The timing and scope however remain unclear amidst claims of a diplomatic freeze between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.