After 12 days of coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear and military infrastructure, Iran formally ended IAEA inspections and stopped responding to the agency's outreach. Bloomberg, citing two officials, reported the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre had been in continuous contact with Tehran until June 13, but that communication has since collapsed.

This move erases transparency over Iran’s nuclear activity. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said the agency could no longer verify the location or status of Iran’s 409 kg of uranium enriched to 60% — a stockpile potentially sufficient for one atomic bomb if further enriched.

Strategic Ambiguity Returns to Nuclear Crisis

Analysts warn Iran’s silence may be a calculated deterrent. “Strategic ambiguity will be its best option,” said Dina Esfandiary of Bloomberg Economics. By keeping the world guessing, Tehran could try to prevent future airstrikes while buying time to regroup.

The uranium stockpile could easily be concealed, as the material can fit in 16 scuba tank–sized cylinders. Some experts fear it may have already been moved to undeclared sites.

Trump Balances Threats With Possible Diplomacy

Despite claiming the strikes caused “total obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. President Donald Trump offered a diplomatic olive branch in a Fox News interview, hinting at sanctions relief if Iran guarantees peace. Days earlier, however, he had written on Truth Social that he was “dropping all work on sanction relief” after Iran's Supreme Leader declared victory.

Iran, for its part, voiced doubt that the ceasefire would hold and refused to commit to renewed talks with Washington. A government spokeswoman said, “No decision has been made.”

Monitoring Risks and Legal Uncertainty

Iran’s Guardian Council recently passed a law suspending IAEA cooperation — a mostly symbolic gesture unless Tehran formally exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Experts note that even if inspectors were allowed back, radiation contamination from the bombings could limit their ability to assess facilities.

Without verification, Iran can no longer credibly signal peaceful intent. “Ambiguity is not cost-free,” warned Darya Dolzikova of the Royal United Services Institute. “Iran has lost the ability to send credible signals about its nuclear program.”