Conflict and Security Dynamics

Security conditions across large parts of Africa deteriorated further as conflicts intensified simultaneously in multiple regions. This issue examines how the convergence of large-scale clashes, sustained air and drone strikes, and coordinated armed group operations is accelerating a continent-wide security downturn stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa.

Civilian populations bore the brunt of escalating violence. This edition highlights the growing centrality of civilian harm, as mass casualties, forced displacement, and systematic abuses surged amid siege tactics, attacks on camps and urban centers, and pressure on transport and supply routes. The cross-border movement of fighters, weapons, and logistics is assessed as a key driver reinforcing conflict regionalisation and undermining containment efforts.

Armed groups expanded the scale, frequency, and coordination of attacks across the Sahel, increasingly targeting military convoys, fuel corridors, mining areas, and rural security posts. The report tracks a shift toward operations aimed at degrading state mobility and economic lifelines, while rival factions competed over territory, influence, and resources. Counterterrorism and stabilization efforts delivered localized gains in parts of East Africa, but this issue underscores the continued adaptability and resilience of armed networks.

Political Developments and Regional Alignments

Political developments remained closely intertwined with security trajectories. This issue assesses how security imperatives are reshaping governance, as military actors maintained significant influence in several states, particularly in West Africa, where transitional authorities consolidated power while advancing new regional security arrangements and joint operational frameworks.

Diplomatic activity increased around major conflict zones. The bulletin reviews renewed mediation initiatives, humanitarian coordination, and intensified international engagement, while noting that political positions often hardened alongside battlefield dynamics, constraining prospects for near-term de-escalation. Disputes over sovereignty, territorial integrity, and external recognition are examined as emerging risk multipliers with implications for maritime routes, border regions, and strategic corridors.

Internal unrest, arrests, and institutional tensions continued to signal governance fragilities. This edition highlights how electoral processes, constitutional revisions, and security-driven restrictions are increasingly used to formalize power structures shaped by instability, reinforcing trends toward centralization.

Economic and Energy Trends

Economic developments remained closely linked to security dynamics. This issue tracks how governments are prioritizing energy restructuring, infrastructure expansion, and strategic investment in hydrocarbons, power generation, ports, and transport corridors to bolster fiscal resilience and long-term growth under adverse conditions.

Mining and critical resource projects continued to expand across West, Central, and Southern Africa, reinforcing the continent’s strategic role in global supply chains. At the same time, the report examines how insecurity, fiscal pressure, and rising humanitarian demands are constraining growth, with disruptions to trade routes, fuel distribution, and local production compounding inflationary pressures and straining public finances.

Overall, this issue underscores how the interaction between escalating security challenges, fragile political transitions, and uneven economic resilience is narrowing policy space across Africa, leaving limited buffers against further shocks in the near term.