The findings matter because they frame future military, economic, and strategic power around long-term scientific dominance rather than current deployments.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) tracks global leadership in high-impact research across technologies central to national security and economic competitiveness.

Its 2025 update expands both the number of technologies assessed and the time horizon of data, reinforcing earlier indications of a structural shift in global research power.

China’s Expanding Research Lead

The 2025 edition of ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker assesses leadership across 74 technologies, up from 64 in the previous cycle, drawing on publications from 2020–2024 and early 2025 trends.

Using the top 10% most highly cited research papers as a proxy for breakthrough and influential work, ASPI found that China leads in 66 of the 74 technologies, or roughly 89–90%.

The United States leads in the remaining eight, including quantum computing and geoengineering.

New Technologies, Familiar Pattern

Ten new fields were added in the latest update, including generative artificial intelligence, computer vision, neuroprosthetics, brain–computer interfaces, and geoengineering.

China leads in eight of these ten newly tracked areas, underscoring that its advantage is not confined to legacy sectors but extends into fast-developing domains.

ASPI notes that China’s margins of leadership are often wide, with Chinese institutions producing far more high-impact papers than their nearest competitors.

Institutional Concentration and Monopoly Risk

The tracker highlights a high degree of institutional concentration behind China’s performance.

The Chinese Academy of Sciences frequently ranks as the world’s leading institution across multiple technologies, reflecting scale effects and coordinated national investment.

ASPI warns that this concentration raises “monopoly risks” in certain fields, where China hosts most of the world’s top research organizations and talent pipelines, potentially creating long-term dependencies for other states.

Historical Shift in Perspective

The findings contrast sharply with earlier periods.

Between 2003 and 2007, the United States led in more than 90% of the technologies now tracked, while China led in fewer than 5%.

In the 2023–2024 ASPI reports, covering 64 technologies, China already led in 57, or about 89%, suggesting the current results represent consolidation rather than a sudden jump.

ASPI attributes the shift to decades of sustained R&D investment, strategic policy planning, and the return or retention of researchers trained abroad.

Limits of the Measure

ASPI emphasizes that research leadership is a leading indicator, not a direct measure of deployed or commercialized capability.

The United States retains strengths in areas such as vaccines, small satellite systems, and specific quantum applications, even where China leads in academic output.

Nevertheless, the tracker is widely cited in policy circles as an early warning signal of where future technological and strategic advantages are likely to emerge.