Boston Consulting Group (BCG) secretly modelled a controversial plan to relocate hundreds of thousands of Gazans to foreign countries including Somalia and the UAE as part of postwar redevelopment scenarios for Gaza. The modelling, which BCG has since disavowed, was carried out for a group of Israeli businessmen tied to the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) and aimed to explore economic outcomes for host countries accepting displaced Palestinians. The firm later fired the consultants involved for conducting the work without proper oversight.

Secret Project Based on Trump-Backed “Relocation” Concept

The relocation model — never publicly released — assumed that 25% of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents could be moved abroad, most permanently, following a temporary “voluntary” phase. BCG’s calculations were included in a slide deck reportedly circulated among U.S. and regional officials, aligning with earlier proposals by U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested “clearing Gaza” and rebuilding it as the “Riviera of the Middle East.”

Some scenarios included hosting Palestinians in Somalia and the unrecognized breakaway territory of Somaliland, despite both facing civil conflict and extreme poverty. The UAE, Egypt, and Jordan were also listed. UN officials and many Western governments have compared these ideas to ethnic cleansing.

Military Base-for-Recognition Deal with Somaliland Explored

At the time of the modelling in March 2025, U.S. officials reportedly held preliminary discussions with Somaliland about accepting refugees in exchange for U.S. recognition and the establishment of a military base. No deal materialized, but the inclusion of such politically volatile scenarios highlights the extreme assumptions behind the relocation model.

Economic Projections and Internal Fallout

BCG projected $4.7 billion in economic “benefits” for countries accepting Gazans over four years, framing the influx as a stimulus. Rent and food subsidies were estimated differently per country, with lower rates in poorer destinations. The broader redevelopment model included costs for clearing debris, building infrastructure, and stimulating private sector investments in tourism and manufacturing over a 10-year period.

However, BCG has since condemned the project. The firm fired the lead consultants in June, stating they had misled senior leadership and carried out the work secretly. The model was linked to BCG’s involvement in the GHF, an alternative aid structure to the UN that has itself come under criticism for violating humanitarian norms.

Arab States Rejected the Plan

Trump previously said he had spoken to Egypt and Jordan about accepting displaced Gazans, but both countries — along with other Arab states — have refused. They fear permanent resettlement would cause internal instability and undermine Palestinian claims to Gaza.

With no international support, the relocation scheme has not progressed. UN officials and European diplomats condemned it as a violation of international law and a cover for forced population transfer under the guise of redevelopment.