Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s envoy for Ukraine, is expected to meet Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in a rare high-level U.S. visit to Minsk, as Washington quietly explores new diplomatic angles to revive Ukraine-Russia ceasefire efforts.

Quiet Diplomacy Aims at Breaking Deadlock

Sources briefed on the matter told Reuters that Kellogg privately sees the trip as a potential opening to re-engage Belarus, long viewed as firmly in Moscow’s orbit. If confirmed, Kellogg would be the highest-ranking U.S. official to meet Lukashenko in years.

While the agenda remains unclear, the goal appears to be testing Minsk's willingness to serve as a conduit for broader de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict. The trip has not been publicly announced and may still be canceled.

From Isolation to Pragmatism: Belarus Recalibrates?

Under Biden’s presidency, the U.S. suspended its embassy operations in Minsk in 2022, citing Belarus’ complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, with Trump back in office, the administration is seeking to cautiously reopen dialogue, hoping to pry Minsk slightly away from Moscow.

An earlier gesture occurred in February, when U.S. officials retrieved three political prisoners from Belarus. Another political detainee, a naturalized U.S. citizen, was freed in April—moves interpreted by Washington as signs Lukashenko may want better ties.

Lukashenko’s Motives Under Scrutiny

Some U.S. officials speculate Belarus’ overtures are tactical, aimed at gaining sanctions relief or increasing its geopolitical bargaining space amid regional isolation. Others warn of being too optimistic. “Western diplomats remain deeply skeptical,” the report noted, especially given Minsk’s economic and military dependence on Russia.

Nonetheless, the Trump team appears open to cautiously exploring whether Lukashenko can be nudged into a limited diplomatic role in the Ukraine war.

Echoes of Trump’s First Term

Kellogg’s outreach recalls the Trump administration’s initial efforts in 2020, when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk in a bid to wedge Belarus out of Putin’s influence. Those hopes collapsed after Belarus’ contested 2020 election and subsequent brutal crackdown on protests.

This renewed effort—now framed within a potential Ukraine peace process—marks another test of whether U.S. diplomacy under Trump’s second term can yield breakthroughs where others have failed.