Sweden is positioning itself to meet NATO’s ambitious new 5% defense spending target by 2030, aligning with the alliance’s evolving priorities amid rising threats from Russia. The announcement comes ahead of NATO’s June summit, where the benchmark is expected to be formally adopted.

5% Defense Goal: A Nordic Commitment

Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson confirmed Stockholm’s roadmap: 3.5% of GDP in direct military spending and 1.5% on related defense outlays. “We stand ready to shoulder the responsibility,” he stated, echoing a broader shift in European defense posture.

NATO Prepares for a New Threshold

The planned NATO benchmark is a significant jump from the current 2% minimum. As of April, only 23 of 32 members met the 2% goal. The new 5% target, long pushed by U.S. President Donald Trump, is now gaining traction among allies, who are increasingly alarmed by Russian military behavior.

Russia Still the Main Driver

Jonson warned that even after a possible peace with Ukraine, Russia is likely to “rapidly rebuild and redeploy” military assets closer to Europe. Citing similar assessments from Swedish and Danish intelligence, he noted Russia’s growing proficiency in electronic warfare and long-range strikes.

A report by Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service said Russia may be capable of a large-scale European offensive within five years if U.S. deterrence wanes. Jonson said Sweden is preparing accordingly, emphasizing lessons learned from Ukraine's battlefield and the urgency to build resilience now, not later.