Iran War Has Exposed Australia’s Dependence on US Missiles

Australia’s reliance on U.S.-made missiles is becoming a strategic vulnerability as the Iran war depletes American stockpiles and threatens to delay weapons deliveries to allies.

Canberra’s defense plans depend heavily on U.S. systems, including an order for roughly 220 Tomahawk cruise missiles.

But sustained American use of long-range weapons in Iran is raising doubts over whether those deliveries can arrive on schedule.

A Center for Strategic and International Studies study found that the U.S. had fired more than 1,000 Tomahawks by May, 39 days into the conflict, while production was unlikely to keep pace.

Charles Edel, CSIS’s Australia chair, told Politico that the war was “putting an enormous strain” on U.S. inventories and was “likely extending the timeline to replenish them.”

“This will put missile deliveries to allies like Australia at a growing risk of delay, potentially exposing gaps in their defenses,” Edel said.

A Growing Supply Risk

The pressure extends beyond Tomahawks.

U.S. stocks of THAAD interceptors, Patriot missiles, SM-6 surface-to-air missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and Precision Strike Missiles are also under strain.

Many of those weapons would be critical in a potential Indo-Pacific conflict, including operations against ships, missile launchers and air-defense systems.

Coalition defense spokesperson James Paterson said wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran had created a global shortage and a “very long queue to be resupplied.”

“If a high-intensity conflict broke out in the Indo-Pacific, Australia would be dangerously exposed with limited stocks of munitions for strike and interceptors for air and missile defense, or the ability to manufacture them at scale,” he said.

Maritime security specialist Jennifer Parker said the risk was structural.

“Whether it’s the U.S. or another country, if we are entirely dependent on that country for production of something that is critical to our war effort, our critical war stocks, of course they will prioritize themselves,” she said.

Deliveries Remain Years Away

The Pentagon moved on August 17 to increase annual Tomahawk production from about 60 missiles to more than 1,000 through a $22.9 billion, seven-year contract with Raytheon.

Even so, rebuilding depleted inventories is expected to take several years.

Australia is also buying long-range AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missiles under a $736 million acquisition announced on August 6.

Washington approved the sale of up to 450 missiles. Australia’s funding commitment suggests an initial order of about 90, but deliveries are not due until 2033.

That lag is sharpening concerns that Canberra could enter a regional crisis with limited reserves and little ability to replace weapons quickly.

Canberra Accelerates Local Production

Australia has been trying since 2023 to rebuild a domestic munitions industry that weakened after the Cold War.

The centerpiece is the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise, which is developing two guided-missile factories by 2029 and a separate plant for longer-range artillery ammunition by 2030.

A spokesperson for Defense Minister Richard Marles declined to say whether the government expected U.S. orders to be delayed because of the Iran war.

“We are making missiles in Australia for the first time since the early 1970s,” the spokesperson said.

Kongsberg Defense Australia is also building a missile manufacturing and maintenance facility at Newcastle Airport. Its Naval Strike Missile and Joint Strike Missile are expected to enter Australian production by the end of 2027.

The question is whether that expansion can move fast enough.

Edel said the Iran conflict had validated Canberra’s push for local production.

“What was once a gradual, decade-long buildup now needs to move at warp speed to close stockpile gaps and strengthen allied capacity,” he said.

For Australia, the issue is increasingly one of wartime resilience: reducing dependence on U.S. supply before Washington is forced to choose between rearming itself and supplying its allies.