The Russian paramilitary Wagner Group announced it has completed its main mission in Mali and has started withdrawing its forces, even as large swathes of the country’s north remain under the control of armed groups including the Azawad Movement and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).

In a statement released earlier this week, Wagner officials declared their operations in Mali a success, claiming the Malian state now exercises full control over its territory. The group, which has operated in the country since late 2021, has reportedly begun pulling out its personnel.

Despite these claims, ground realities suggest otherwise. Armed control in northern Mali remains highly fragmented, with the Tuareg-led Azawad Movement and al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM still holding major areas, especially around Timbuktu, Kidal, and Gao.

Security Vacuum Looms in Northern Mali

Wagner’s presence in Mali had been instrumental in bolstering the military government following the 2021 coup, replacing departing French forces. However, its withdrawal raises concerns about renewed instability.

"Although the junta claims success, the northern regions are far from secure," a West African security analyst told regional media, adding that “the departure of Wagner could embolden insurgent factions.”

Limited Gains and Lasting Challenges

While Wagner forces were involved in counterinsurgency and protection of strategic sites, their presence was also mired in controversy over alleged human rights violations and opaque agreements with the Bamako government.

With the withdrawal, analysts warn that the Malian military may struggle to fill the gap left behind. The United Nations peacekeeping mission has also exited the country, leaving few international forces to help stabilize the region.

Since the collapse of the 2015 Algiers peace accord and the 2023 resumption of armed confrontation in the north, Mali has faced a resurgence of conflict between separatist and jihadist factions. Wagner’s arrival was seen as a geopolitical pivot away from Western influence, but its exit now exposes the fragility of state control. The future of Mali’s north, in particular, remains uncertain amid the vacuum left by international and private security forces.