The data underline a cooling labor market at a sensitive moment for Federal Reserve policy and fiscal adjustment.

The figures were released on December 16 in a delayed Employment Situation report covering October and November, after a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted data collection.

The shutdown created gaps in the household survey and forced methodological adjustments, complicating interpretation of short-term labor trends.

Labor Market Loses Traction

The November report confirms a gradual but persistent softening in U.S. labor conditions, with unemployment rising to 4.6% from 4.4% in September and up sharply from 4.0% at the start of 2025. 

At roughly 7.8 million, the number of unemployed Americans was little changed from September, but the higher rate reflects more people entering the labor force than finding jobs. 

The participation rate edged up to about 62.5%, reinforcing that the increase was driven by labor supply rather than widespread layoffs.

Payroll data painted a similarly uneven picture. Nonfarm employment fell by 105,000 jobs in October—the largest monthly decline since December 2020—before rebounding by a modest 64,000 in November. 

Even with that recovery, job growth remained well below levels seen earlier in the post-pandemic expansion, signaling a “low-hire, low-fire” environment increasingly cited by policymakers and economists.

“Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Dynamics

Federal government employment was a major drag. 

Payrolls fell by 162,000 jobs in October and another 6,000 in November as deferred resignations and buyout programs took effect. 

Private-sector hiring was concentrated narrowly, with health care adding 46,000 jobs and construction 28,000, offset by losses in transportation and warehousing (-18,000) and manufacturing (-5,000).

Wage growth also slowed. 

Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-on-month in November, bringing annual growth to 3.5%, the weakest pace since May 2021. 

Broader underemployment, measured by the U-6 rate, climbed to about 8.7%, its highest level since August 2021, suggesting slack is building beyond the headline unemployment rate.

Data Gaps and Statistical Caveats

The Bureau of Labor Statistics cautioned that the figures carry higher-than-usual uncertainty. 

No household survey was conducted in October, leaving the unemployment rate unreported for that month—the first such gap since 1948.

November estimates relied on adjusted weighting and response rates of roughly 64%, increasing statistical error.

Demographic breakdowns showed uneven impacts. 

Unemployment among Black workers rose to 8.3%, while teenage unemployment reached 16.3%.

Long-term unemployment increased to 1.9 million, reinforcing concerns that labor market cooling may be affecting vulnerable groups first, even as overall joblessness remains low by historical standards.