Longevity Versus Legitimacy

Uganda’s presidential election places Yoweri Museveni’s four-decade rule under renewed scrutiny, testing how longevity interacts with legitimacy in a country where political power has remained concentrated since the end of the Cold War. The 81-year-old president and former rebel is seeking a seventh term in office on Thursday after nearly four decades leading the East African nation, the vast majority of whose citizens have never known any other leader.

Museveni took power in 1986 after years of insurgency, declaring that “the problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power.” His latest bid underscores how far Uganda has moved from that founding promise.

Museveni’s early years were marked by optimism as the country attracted foreign investment, restored order after years of turmoil and won Western praise. Over time, however, those gains were overshadowed by allegations of graft and increasingly authoritarian rule.

Power Through Security

A key pillar of Museveni’s durability has been security cooperation. Uganda aligned itself with Western priorities by deploying peacekeepers to Somalia and South Sudan and by hosting large numbers of refugees. These policies helped shield Kampala from sustained external pressure even as domestic governance concerns mounted. Museveni has acknowledged corruption within the government, claiming officials caught engaging in corruption have been prosecuted.

Domestically, the record is mixed. His government earned praise for confronting the AIDS epidemic and for defeating the Lord’s Resistance Army, which brutalized communities for nearly 20 years. Yet corruption hollowed out state capacity. According to UNICEF, only one in four Ugandan children entering primary school reaches secondary school, while well-paid jobs remain scarce for a fast-growing population.

Elections, Law, and Dissent

Museveni has won all six presidential elections he has contested. Four were against Kizza Besigye, once his personal doctor during the war, who later accused him of corruption and human rights abuses. Besigye was arrested in 2024 and now faces treason charges. Opposition candidates have repeatedly rejected election outcomes over alleged irregularities, claims authorities deny as police have cracked down on protests.

Institutional change has favored continuity. In 2005, parliament scrapped presidential term limits, a move critics said was aimed at keeping Museveni in power indefinitely. He brushed off Western criticism, saying in 2006, “If the international community has lost confidence in us, then that is a compliment because they are habitually wrong.” He also diversified Uganda’s external ties, cultivating relations with China, Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The discovery of oil deposits further boosted his standing, leading to agreements with TotalEnergies and CNOOC to build an export pipeline.

Succession Anxiety

Museveni’s main rival in Thursday’s vote is Bobi Wine, a 43-year-old pop star turned politician. Analysts say the contest is less about the winner than about what follows. “The big question looming over the election is the question of succession,” says Kristof Titeca, a professor at the University of Antwerp who spoke to Reuters.

According to Titeca, Uganda’s opposition accuses President Museveni of fast-tracking the career of his 51-year-old son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who serves as Uganda’s military chief, in order to position him as a potential successor.

Veteran allies from the Ugandan “Bush War” era have been allegedly sidelined, while Kainerugaba’s frequent and inflammatory posts on X have fueled controversy.