Trump Revives Nile Mediation Offer, Egypt & Sudan Welcome it

U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia over the long-running dispute on Nile River waters, placing Washington back into one of Africa’s most sensitive geopolitical standoffs. In a letter dated Friday and published on his Truth Social account, Trump wrote: “I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all.” The offer comes as tensions remain unresolved nearly six years after Ethiopia began filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $5 billion national project on a tributary of the Nile.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi responded publicly on Saturday, saying he valued Trump’s initiative and had reiterated Egypt’s position regarding water security. In a post on X, Sisi said he conveyed Egypt’s concerns over GERD and its potential impact on downstream flows.

Sudan’s army chief and head of the Sovereign Council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, also welcomed the proposal on his X account. Burhan described Trump’s initiative as a step “to find sustainable and satisfactory solutions that preserve everyone’s rights,” adding that “The Government of Sudan welcomes and supports President Trump's initiative and mediation.”

Competing Security Claims

The GERD dispute centers on sharply divergent threat perceptions. Egypt relies on the Nile for about 90% of its freshwater supply and argues the dam violates international treaties while risking both drought and flooding downstream.

Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country with over 120 million people, rejects these claims, arguing that the Ethiopian Highlands generate the majority of the Blue Nile’s flow, supplying most of the water that ultimately reaches Sudan and Egypt, and therefore position Ethiopia as the river’s primary source rather than a marginal upstream actor. Addis Ababa believes GERD is essential to national development and electricity generation. Accordingly, the dam was inagurated on September 9, 2025, hailed as Africa’s largest hydropower project designed to “expand domestic electricity access and boost power exports”.

Sudan’s position has oscillated between cooperation and alarm. While Khartoum initially saw benefits in flood regulation, it has increasingly raised concerns about dam safety and unilateral water management. In October 2025, Egypt accused Ethiopia of managing GERD “recklessly and irresponsibly” after unilateral releases were blamed for severe flooding in Sudan, a charge Ethiopia dismissed, insisting the dam actually reduces flood risks.

The July 2025 assessment described GERD as a geopolitical flashpoint, with Cairo calling it an existential threat and Addis Ababa defending it as a national development project.

Trust Deficit Over Washington

Despite Egyptian and Sudanese support, skepticism in Ethiopia toward Trump’s role remains pronounced. Trump’s remarks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in October 2020 caused controversy in Ethiopia, where he openly suggested Egypt might “blow up” the dam and appeared to sympathize with Cairo’s position. Ethiopians viewed the comments as biased that would legitimize the threat of military action against a critical national development project. The video shows Trump saying “Egypt is not going to be able to live that way, and they’ll end up blowing up the dam.” He continued, “They should have stopped it long before it was started.”

Ethiopians cite these remarks as evidence of Trump’s bias toward Cairo, questioning Washington’s credibility as a neutral mediator.

Trump has publicly praised Egyptian President Sisi on multiple occasions, including during an October visit to Egypt linked to a Gaza-related agreement. He has also echoed Egypt’s water security concerns in public statements, reinforcing perceptions in Addis Ababa that U.S. mediation may tilt toward downstream interests.

Regional Stakes Remain High

The Nile dispute involves more than bilateral relations. With Ethiopia investing $5 billion in GERD and Egypt viewing uninterrupted Nile flow as a national survival issue, mediation carries implications for regional stability across northeast Africa.

Previous African Union led and U.S. backed talks failed to produce a binding agreement on dam operations, leaving core disagreements unresolved. Trump’s renewed offer underscores Washington’s intent to reinsert itself diplomatically, but the durability of any mediation effort will hinge on whether Ethiopia accepts U.S. involvement amid lingering mistrust and whether binding guarantees can bridge entrenched positions held since at least 2019.