Airspace Control Under Pressure

Türkiye experienced three separate unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) incidents within five days, underscoring the strain on airspace monitoring amid elevated Black Sea tensions.

The sequence began on Dec 15, 2025, when the Defense Ministry detected an unidentified aerial track approaching from the Black Sea.

F-16 fighter jets were scrambled, and the UAV was assessed as “out of control.”

Authorities destroyed it outside populated areas to mitigate risks to civilian aviation and public safety.

The ministry said the debris fragmented on impact, complicating identification efforts.

The inability to determine the UAV’s origin reflects a recurring challenge in counter-UAV operations: small platforms often leave limited forensic signatures once destroyed.

Officials confirmed that technical analysis and debris searches continued after the incident, but no attribution was announced.

“Field Discoveries, Strategic Signals”

A second incident occurred on Dec 19 in Kocaeli province, near İzmit, where residents discovered a damaged UAV in an agricultural field.

The Interior Ministry said an initial assessment identified the aircraft as a Russian-origin Orlan-10, a reconnaissance drone commonly used for surveillance missions.

Photographs circulating locally showed a red star marking, reinforcing the preliminary identification.

The Orlan-10, widely documented in the Ukraine war, is designed for short- to medium-range intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance tasks.

Authorities opened a formal investigation but did not indicate how the drone reached northwestern Türkiye or whether it was linked to the earlier Black Sea incident.

Technical Analysis in Ankara

On Dec 20, farmers in Salur neighborhood, Manyas district of Balıkesir province, reported another UAV crash in an empty field.

Gendarmerie units secured the site and transferred the aircraft to Ankara for detailed technical examination.

Officials stressed that ownership and origin remain undetermined, and that Russian origin is only one possibility under review.

No injuries or property damage were reported, as the UAV landed in an uninhabited area.

Authorities have not confirmed any operational or logistical link between the Balıkesir UAV, the Kocaeli Orlan-10, or the Dec 15 shootdown.

Capability Context: Merlin-VR

The Balıkesir UAV visually resembles the Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance UAV, a higher-end system compared with platforms such as Supercam or ZALA.

The Merlin-VR is designed for long-range surveillance missions of up to 600 km, with a wingspan of 4.9 meters, length of 2.02 meters, and maximum payload of 7 kg for electro-optical sensors.

It can fly for up to 10 hours, at speeds of 70–140 km/h, and altitudes reaching 5 km, using a low-acoustic hybrid propulsion system.

Launch is conducted via catapult with rubber harness, and recovery uses a parachute with air cushion.

Ukrainian forces have destroyed multiple Merlin-VR drones between 2022 and June 2025, each valued at approximately $300,000, using FPV interceptors and air defenses. More than 12 losses have been documented by one monitoring project alone.