Stubb Says Russia Loses More Soldiers in One Month Than Soviets Lost in Afghanistan War

Finnish President Alexander Stubb says roughly 25,000 soldiers are being killed every month in Ukraine, more than the Soviet Union lost in its entire decade-long war in Afghanistan, as drones leave the front line almost frozen. Reports on his remarks, including UNITED24 Media, present the toll as Russian losses.

Stubb made the comments on Sept. 23 at the UN Security Council in New York, speaking on behalf of the five Nordic countries. They resurfaced in Ukrainian media on Oct. 28, a day after he and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre held a 90-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A Stalemate With Little Territorial Change

Stubb said Russia gained roughly 900 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2026, while Ukraine took back about 800. That implies a net change of roughly 100 square kilometers.

“So the line of contact is basically not moving,” he said. At that pace, he warned, seizing the rest of the Donbas “will take years.”

Monthly Toll Versus the Afghan War

Stubb said roughly 25,000 soldiers are being killed every month. He compared that with the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which lasted from 1979 to 1989 and, according to the figure he cited, cost roughly 18,000 Soviet lives. Soviet officials reported about 15,000 military deaths in that war.

The UN's summary of the session records the 25,000 monthly figure without naming a side, and U.S. Permanent Representative Michael Waltz cited 25,000 casualties per month at the same meeting. Stubb's estimate has not been independently verified.

“This, in my mind, is a waste of life,” Stubb said. “So the continuation of this war is a lose-lose.”

A senior NATO official separately told Bloomberg on Oct. 11 that Russia suffered more than 50,000 casualties in September, including as many as 28,000 killed, against about 5,000 Ukrainian casualties. Neither figure has been independently verified.

Drones Create 20-Kilometer “Death Zones”

Stubb attributed the stalemate to unmanned systems and near-constant surveillance. “We’re seeing unmanned vehicles, we’re seeing death zones of roughly 20 kilometers to which you cannot enter, because with a 95 percent certainty, you’re going to be wiped out,” he said.

The 95 percent figure is Stubb's own assessment, not a measured probability.

Ukrainian and Independent Tallies

Ukraine's General Staff said on Oct. 29 that Russia has lost about 1,584,910 personnel since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The figure covers killed, wounded and other losses, and the General Staff does not say how many were killed.

It also reported 49,040 Russian personnel losses in October as of Oct. 29, the highest monthly total since the invasion began. The previous record was 48,670 in December 2024.

Independent counts are far lower because they only include deaths that can be confirmed. Mediazona and the BBC's Russian service had identified 282,993 Russian military dead by name through Oct. 23, and say the real toll is higher. Moscow does not publish comprehensive casualty data, so the figures cannot be compared directly.

Stubb’s Diplomacy Push

Stubb and Støre hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo on Oct. 20. Stubb's office said the Oct. 27 call with Putin aimed to deliver a direct message ahead of planned negotiations in Abu Dhabi. Stubb said the call covered limits on strikes on energy infrastructure and food security.

For more on the war's trajectory, see How Long Can Ukraine Keep Fighting Without US Support?