Estonia’s senior intelligence assessment argues that deterrence is currently working in the Baltic region, with Russia showing no intention of launching an attack against Estonia, its Baltic neighbors, or NATO more broadly. 

In an interview with ERR, Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin said there is “currently no indication” of such plans, framing the security environment as tense but controlled. 

The assessment comes at the end of 2024, nearly three years into Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, and follows a year marked by repeated hybrid incidents around NATO’s eastern flank. Rosin stressed that Estonia’s task is to ensure the situation “remains that way,” underscoring deterrence as an active, not passive, condition.  

“Russia Respects NATO”

Rosin linked the current lack of escalation to clear Western responses to earlier incidents. 

He said that after events such as undersea cable damage, drone incursions into NATO airspace, and aircraft violations, Russia adjusted its behavior. “So far, it’s still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,” he told ERR. 

According to Rosin, Russian aircraft are now more carefully adhering to flight paths over the Baltic Sea, while drone routes over Ukraine have been adjusted to reduce the risk of spillover. He also noted that there have been no new cable-related incidents since NATO launched the Baltic Sentry mission, indicating that visible countermeasures can shape Russian conduct.  

Hybrid Pressure Without Escalation

The interview highlights how Russia continues to operate below the threshold of open conflict. 

Rosin distinguished between constant intelligence-gathering, which he described as routine, and physical sabotage, which he said is “likely carried out with the knowledge and approval of Russia’s leadership.” Such activities, he argued, are aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and disrupting supply routes rather than provoking a direct NATO response. 

Estonia experienced several notable incidents in 2024, including a Russian aircraft that remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes and a border episode at the Saatse Boot involving about seven men, which triggered heightened security measures and rapid infrastructure changes. Rosin said Estonia’s responses “definitely registered with Russia,” contributing to subsequent behavioral adjustments.  

Rearmament As The Real Contest

Beyond immediate threats, Rosin framed Europe’s rearmament as the central strategic issue. 

He said Russia’s interest lies in slowing Europe’s defense momentum through a mix of calming narratives and political influence operations. Moscow, he noted, promotes the idea that it poses no threat while encouraging arguments that defense spending diverts resources from social welfare. 

At the same time, Russia faces mounting economic pressure. Rosin quantified the impact of sanctions, saying that every $1 change in the price of a barrel of oil translates into roughly $120–140 million per month in gains or losses for Russia. While he cautioned that Russia is not on the verge of collapse within six to 12 months, he said the cumulative effect of sanctions is deepening. 

The conclusion was stark: maintaining the current level of security requires sustained investment by Estonia, the European Union, and NATO to ensure Russia continues to “respect” the alliance in the years ahead.