China is moving steadily toward a nuclear force exceeding 1,000 warheads by the end of the decade, a development the Pentagon says marks one of the most consequential shifts in global strategic stability in decades.

In its 2025 annual report to Congress, the U.S. Department of Defense assesses that Beijing’s nuclear buildup, while temporarily slowing in pace, remains firmly on track.

“The PLA remains on track to have over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.”

The report notes that China’s stockpile remained in the low 600s through 2024, but emphasizes that the overall trajectory is unchanged.

This expansion represents a dramatic increase from estimates in 2020, when the Pentagon assessed China possessed roughly 200 warheads.

The buildup is accompanied by advances in delivery systems, early-warning capabilities, and command-and-control structures, indicating a transition from a minimal deterrent posture toward a far more flexible and survivable nuclear force.

The Pentagon highlights China’s progress toward an early-warning counterstrike capability, a posture closer to launch-on-warning doctrines long associated with U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

According to the report, China is investing heavily in space-based infrared sensors and other detection systems designed to shorten decision timelines in a crisis.

“China probably made progress on its attempts to achieve an early warning counterstrike capability.”

This shift, the report suggests, increases both China’s confidence in its deterrent and the risks of miscalculation during periods of heightened tension.

The Pentagon also points to China’s September 2024 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean—the first such test since 1980—as evidence of growing confidence in full-range nuclear strike capabilities.

The nuclear expansion is not occurring in isolation.

The Pentagon situates China’s strategic forces within a broader transformation of how Beijing conceptualizes war itself.

The report states that China increasingly views future conflict as a struggle between entire national systems rather than discrete military engagements.

“China’s top military strategy focuses squarely on overcoming the United States through a whole-of-nation mobilization effort that Beijing terms ‘national total war.’”

Under this concept, nuclear forces serve not only as a deterrent but as a central pillar of escalation control, designed to shape adversary decision-making across the full spectrum of conflict.

The report indicates that China’s leadership sees nuclear weapons, cyber operations, space capabilities, and conventional long-range strikes as integrated tools rather than separate domains.

The Pentagon describes “national total war” as a framework that extends beyond the battlefield, encompassing economic resilience, industrial mobilization, information control, and civilian-military integration.

Drawing lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine, Chinese military writings emphasize the need to sustain conflict over time while managing domestic stability and international pressure.

“The PLA views conflict not simply as a clash of militaries, but as a clash of national systems.”

In this context, China’s nuclear buildup provides strategic depth, allowing Beijing to deter external intervention while prosecuting a prolonged campaign.

The report suggests that China believes a credible and survivable nuclear force reduces the likelihood that the United States or its allies would escalate a regional conflict—such as over Taiwan—into a wider war.

The Pentagon warns that China’s combined nuclear expansion and whole-of-nation war planning pose a growing challenge to U.S. deterrence strategies.

Rather than preparing solely for short, sharp conflicts, Beijing appears to be positioning itself for sustained competition and potential conflict against a technologically advanced adversary.

The report frames China’s trajectory as a deliberate effort to reshape the strategic environment, reduce U.S. freedom of action, and alter escalation dynamics in China’s favor.

While the Pentagon stops short of predicting imminent conflict, it underscores that the scale and integration of China’s nuclear and conventional modernization efforts are fundamentally changing the risk landscape in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.