Oil Falls Nearly 8% as Iran Diplomacy Hopes Push Brent Below $105
Brent fell nearly 8% to about $104.46 and WTI about 7.4% to $96.39 as hopes grew for a US-Iran deal. Iran’s president said talks are possible, and Trump is giving diplomacy more time.
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Oil prices fell nearly 8% on Monday, Nov. 2, as hopes grew for a US-Iran deal. Brent crude ended near $104.46 a barrel, down about 7.9% from Friday, World Oil Monitor data show.
US benchmark WTI ended near $96.39, down about 7.4%. We could not open a Reuters or Bloomberg settlement report, so closing levels may differ slightly by source.
How Far Prices Fell
Friday’s settlements were $113.43 for January Brent and $104.12 for December WTI, EnergyNow reported. Both were the highest since the end of April, per CNBC via Invezz.
December Brent expired Friday at $117.64, and January is now the front month. Comparing Monday with that expired contract would overstate the drop.
Reuters had Brent down 7.47% at $104.96 at 12:24 p.m. ET. Its session lows were $104.49 for Brent and $96.44 for WTI, it reported.
Anadolu had Brent at $104.43, down 7.94%, as of 1700 GMT, it reported. The slide began earlier, with Brent down about 3% in Asian trade.
What Drove the Drop
Prices fell furthest after Iran’s president said the supreme leader gave the government “certain authorities” for talks, Reuters reported. Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran will try to resolve the problem through dialogue. We covered his remarks.
A draft proposal is circulating after Iranian negotiators left Doha, an official told Reuters. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal is possible if Washington “demonstrates goodwill,” CNBC reported.
Iran’s foreign ministry says the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen unless the US ends its naval blockade, Anadolu reported. Araghchi’s two-day plan is the most concrete Qatari-mediated proposal so far.
Washington also sounded softer. Axios reported that Trump told Benjamin Netanyahu he wants to give diplomacy more time, as we covered. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump “hasn’t made a decision” and would prefer a peaceful route, CNBC reported.
OPEC+ was not the trigger. Seven producers kept December output targets unchanged on Sunday.
Hormuz and the Risk Premium
The war began on Feb. 28 and has disrupted shipping through Hormuz. Attacks on tankers have risen recently, Reuters said. The ADNOC chief said the world has drained nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories, Reuters reported.
Analysts said much of October’s rally was a risk premium for post-election escalation. TD Securities’ Ryan McKay does not expect diplomacy headlines alone to erase it, CNBC reported. Raymond James’ Pavel Molchanov urged caution after many “false dawns.”
Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average $105 in December, up from $90, Yahoo Finance reported. Reuters said it sees Brent at $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below 2025.
Risks Remain
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Saturday that any attack would meet a “geographically unrestricted” response, CNBC reported. Trump said on Sunday that the US will eventually have to “give them the hammer.”
Gulf governments are bracing for strikes after Tuesday’s US midterms, the WSJ reported, as we covered. Our earlier report on Gulf oil exports covers how supply has held up.
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