President Daniel Noboa is attempting a bold security strategy: offering to take in U.S. deportees in return for increased Washington cooperation. His move fits into a broader U.S. push to find partner nations willing to host deportees. Yet despite public victories like the extradition of gang boss “Fito,” rising homicide numbers and legal setbacks cast doubt on whether Quito’s hard-line narrative is producing real security gains.

Deportees for Security Support

Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld confirmed talks to accept up to 300 individuals annually, restricted to certain nationalities and those without criminal records. The proposal is timed with the visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, underscoring Quito’s bid to be seen as a reliable partner in Washington’s regional security strategy.

The U.S. has signaled a tougher regional stance—illustrated by a recent strike on a suspected drug vessel in the Caribbean—adding urgency for allies like Ecuador to demonstrate loyalty.

Rising Violence Despite Tactical Wins

The extradition of Adolfo “Fito” Macías Villamar to U.S. custody was presented as a turning point. A senior U.S. official remarked: “I’m happy that he will spend the rest of his life rotting in a prison there.”

But the broader picture is grim: 4,064 homicides in the first half of 2025 and more than 5,000 by late July, a 40% year-on-year increase. Prison riots have ebbed, but violence has spilled into civilian communities—mass shootings in El Empalme and Santa Lucía killed dozens in July and August.

The military has also suffered heavy losses: on May 9, 11 soldiers were killed in an Amazon ambush by the Border Commandos, the army’s deadliest day in more than eight decades.

Legal Setbacks for Security Agenda

Since Noboa’s second inauguration, Ecuador’s legislature passed laws expanding surveillance powers, extending pre-trial detention, and allowing minors to be charged as adults. Yet in August the Constitutional Court suspended 17 provisions, including warrantless wiretapping and immunity for security forces using lethal force.

Security analysts warn that the resulting legal uncertainty risks “operational confusion” for forces in the field. Others stress that investment shortfalls mean “this year and next year will not show favorable figures for security.”

Other Countries Accepting U.S. Deportees

Ecuador’s offer is part of a larger pattern of U.S. “third-country” deportation deals:

• Rwanda agreed to receive up to 250 deportees, offering housing, healthcare, and job training. The first group of seven arrived in August 2025.
• Eswatini took in five deportees from countries including Cuba and Yemen; they were placed in correctional facilities, sparking human rights concerns.
• South Sudan accepted eight men under a July transfer and has signaled readiness to take more in return for aid and sanctions relief.
• Uganda reached a framework agreement to host non-criminal deportees, especially from African states, in exchange for U.S. financial support.
• Honduras agreed to host several hundred deportees over two years, including family groups.
• Panama has accepted deportees from countries like Afghanistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan, housing them in migrant camps while their cases are processed.
• Costa Rica is hosting 200 deportees at a migrant care center (CATEM), pending asylum or repatriation.
• El Salvador and Guatemala struck deals brokered by Washington in early 2025; El Salvador received $6 million as part of the agreement.
• Colombia, initially resistant, agreed under U.S. pressure to accept deportees on civilian flights rather than military aircraft.

For many of these partners, the agreements provide diplomatic leverage and funding. But rights groups warn that limited oversight risks exposing deportees to inadequate protections and political exploitation.