Mystery Shrouds Fate of Iran’s Uranium

The fate of Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile remains uncertain nearly two weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, with conflicting assessments emerging from intelligence agencies, international monitors, and political leaders.

Intelligence Unclear on Uranium’s Whereabouts

While the Pentagon and President Trump insist there is “no indication” Iran moved its near-bomb-grade uranium before the strikes, multiple sources—including European intelligence and IAEA officials—suggest otherwise. Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the IAEA, noted the material could be transported “in the trunk of an ordinary car,” and observed signs of vehicles moving materials before the strikes.

U.S. intelligence reportedly found conflicting signals, with Iranian officials themselves unsure of the stockpile’s status. Though some uranium containers were believed to be stored at Fordow and Natanz, the IAEA believes most were located at Isfahan.

Officials Split on Damage Assessment

American officials say the attacks seriously crippled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, particularly at Fordow and Isfahan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that destruction of Isfahan’s conversion facility—key to producing nuclear weapon materials—was a major blow. However, despite damaged centrifuges and disrupted enrichment capability, the possibility remains that Iran retained enough stockpile to resume weapons development at a hidden location.

Senator Lindsey Graham warned: “They are obliterated today but they can reconstitute.” Intelligence Committee Democrat Jim Himes added, “Obliterating the sites means nothing if the Iranians moved enough uranium... to build a bomb elsewhere.”

Dispersal Strategy and Strategic Ambiguity

American agencies had long anticipated Iran would disperse its stockpile if faced with imminent attack, either to maintain leverage in talks or to race toward a bomb. Now, officials suspect Iran may have done just that—without leaving definitive evidence.

The Trump administration rejects these claims. “Would take too long, too dangerous,” Trump said, insisting the uranium was destroyed or buried in the bombings. But some believe the regime acted preemptively and intelligently, hiding a portion of the material in secure, unknown locations.

Broader Implications for Nuclear Monitoring

While Iran’s production capacity may have been set back by years, the debate now centers on verification. Without on-the-ground IAEA access, analysts fear Tehran could rapidly advance a secret weapons program using hidden assets. The question of how much uranium remains and where it’s stored is now central to both intelligence assessments and global nonproliferation efforts.