More Than 150 Polymarket Wallets May Have Traded on US Military Secrets

More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, according to research that raises broader concerns about whether prediction markets can expose sensitive signals to foreign adversaries.

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective identified 152 exceptionally successful wallets active in military and defense markets. Together, they made $8 million and recorded an average win rate of 97.2 percent.

The nonprofit research group said the wallets were the traders most likely to have operated on military secrets, though it acknowledged that their unusual performance could have other explanations, including luck.

High-Risk, High-Success Bets

ACDC examined all settled Polymarket markets through May 5, looking for what it classified as “long-shot” bets.

The group defined those as wagers totaling at least $2,500 within one hour on outcomes carrying odds of 35 percent or lower.

Its analysis identified 556 wallets that it labeled “Orcas”, a reference to the selective hunting behavior of killer whales.

Such accounts typically appeared shortly before placing a highly successful wager in a niche market where privileged information could provide an advantage. Many subsequently withdrew their winnings and became inactive.

Of those wallets, 152 were concentrated in military and defense markets.

ACDC said some had previously attracted scrutiny from researchers and media organizations, but that dozens of the wallets it identified had not been publicly reported before.

Copycat Traders May Magnify the Signal

The research points to a second national-security concern: suspicious trades may not remain isolated.

ACDC found evidence that bets by military Orcas were followed by similar positions from deep-pocketed traders described as “Whales” and from automated trading bots.

That behavior could make an unusual wager more visible across the market and strengthen its associated signal.

When an Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before the June 2025 strikes, according to the research, a bot subsequently wagered $200,000 on the same outcome, and a Whale placed another $100,000.

ACDC also found that similar Orca positions ahead of February U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Tehran appeared to precede a surge of first-time long-shot bets by bots and large traders taking the same side.

“Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It's all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades,” ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said.

“It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets.”

Public Ledger Creates a Security Trade-Off

Polymarket's international platform records settled trades on a blockchain. Wagers are therefore publicly visible even though the identities behind individual wallets remain anonymous.

That transparency can assist investigators, but ACDC argues it could also allow suspected insider activity to be detected and replicated rapidly.

Polymarket has said its public ledger provides greater scrutiny of trading activity.

The company says it maintains strict controls, monitors suspicious behavior and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities.

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment on the research.

Maduro Case Adds to Scrutiny

The findings come amid growing scrutiny of prediction-market bets placed ahead of U.S. military operations.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. soldier charged in April, is accused by prosecutors of using classified information to bet on the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Prosecutors say Van Dyke made $400,000. He has pleaded not guilty.

His trading pattern did not meet ACDC's Orca definition because he accumulated his position more gradually, meaning he is not among the 152 military wallets identified by the research.

The case nonetheless illustrates the broader concern about using government information in prediction markets.

The Department of Defense said it does not comment on intelligence-related matters or findings produced by third-party researchers.

Researchers Call for Tighter Restrictions

Profiting from confidential government information is generally illegal, but ACDC argues that enforcement against individual traders may not address the wider security risks created by military prediction markets.

The group has called for traders to verify their identities and for payouts linked to suspicious activity to be withheld while investigations are conducted.

It also argues that markets where non-public information can provide a particularly actionable and profitable advantage should be prohibited altogether.

“Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations ... will not be enough,” ACDC said.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is seeking jurisdiction over prediction markets, did not comment on the findings.

The regulator has said it intends to police misconduct strictly and has brought charges in at least three cases.