Ukraine Claims Russia Plans to Cut Cities Off from Power, Heat in Winter

Ukraine has shown European allies a document it describes as an intercepted Russian plan to deprive major cities of electricity, heating and water this winter, with attacks intended to bring down the country’s energy system.

Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented the material in Paris two weeks ago, according to two people familiar with the briefing.

The document outlines strikes involving up to 1,000 missiles, drones and bombs against energy facilities and water infrastructure.

The New York Times obtained a copy but could not independently authenticate it.

Written in Russian and dated August, it identifies Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as priority targets.

Essential Services in the Crosshairs

The document sets out objectives of cutting electricity supplies to those cities by 90%, reducing heating by as much as 90% and causing major sewage disruptions.

Such losses could trigger a humanitarian crisis during freezing weather.

Water pumping stations and wastewater treatment facilities would face dozens of ballistic missiles and glide bombs under the alleged plan.

Ukrainian officials privately acknowledge that contingency arrangements for extensive water outages are limited.

Shmyhal referred publicly to the document last week, saying: “Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, by this cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy sector.”

Nuclear Connections Targeted

The proposed campaign would proceed through three stages: attacking substations handling electricity imports from Europe, striking hydroelectric plants, and disconnecting Ukraine’s three operating nuclear plants.

Missiles would target the switchyards linking those nuclear facilities to the grid. Located less than a mile from the reactors, the switchyards are essential to delivering their electricity.

The document’s stated objective is to remove nearly 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, roughly equivalent to Ukraine’s available capacity at the end of the summer.

Whether Moscow will execute the alleged strategy remains uncertain.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has nevertheless publicly announced a broad winter campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, describing it as retaliation for attacks on Russian refineries.

Repairs Face Renewed Pressure

Wednesday’s predawn missile and drone barrage struck a large thermal plant and other energy installations, leaving parts of Kyiv without electricity and water.

Ukrainian officials characterized it as the beginning of the winter campaign.

Russia enters the season with ballistic missile stocks and jet-powered drones that Ukrainian defenses have struggled to intercept.

Earlier annual campaigns have produced varying results, but repeated damage has weakened the grid.

Ukraine has spent hundreds of millions of dollars repairing plants and substations, protecting critical equipment and installing smaller gas-powered generating units.

Grid improvements aim to redirect electricity around damaged transmission routes.

Shmyhal told Parliament in August that available capacity stood at about 15 gigawatts and could exceed 21 gigawatts by year-end. Last winter’s peak demand was approximately 18 gigawatts.

Those projections remain vulnerable to renewed destruction. Energy analyst Maria Tsaturian warned that a handful of attacks could erase the five gigawatts restored in recent months.

For households, the consequences extend beyond lighting and heating. Last winter, Kyiv residents routinely faced daily outages lasting 12 hours or longer, while power failures disabled water pumps and elevators in apartment towers.

Olena Pavlenko, head of the DiXi Group energy think tank, compared the weakened grid’s challenge this winter to “running a marathon with only one lung.”