Analysts say Kordofan’s geographic and economic value makes it a crucial prize. The region contains Sudan’s main oil pipelines, which are also essential for landlocked South Sudan’s exports. “Whoever controls Kordofan effectively controls the country's oil supply,” said Amir Imam of Oasis Policy Advisory.

The fighting escalated in June as the army shifted its focus to Kordofan after retaking Khartoum and Gezira from RSF forces. Despite controlling some oil fields, the army faces stiff resistance in West Kordofan, where RSF influence runs deep—especially among local ethnic Misseriya communities. Analysts caution that airstrikes in towns like el-Fula and Abu Zabad have further alienated civilians and may strengthen RSF recruitment.

Sudan’s military leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited Khartoum for only the second time since RSF forces were driven out in March, but he remains based in Port Sudan—highlighting the instability still gripping the capital.

Civilian Deaths And Humanitarian Alarm

The United Nations has condemned recent airstrikes on civilian areas, including schools and shelters in el-Fula and Abu Zabad, which reportedly killed more than 20 people. Meanwhile, UNICEF reported over 450 civilian deaths, including dozens of children and pregnant women, in North Kordofan’s Bara region and nearby villages.

Rights groups say the RSF has also committed atrocities. Emergency Lawyers, a Sudanese civil rights group, stated that over 200 people were killed—many burned alive—in a series of attacks suspected to be deliberate arson. The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab confirmed that satellite imagery suggested intentional fires in Shag Alnom.

With reports of the RSF mobilizing to seize el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, tension continues to mount. The town of Umm Sumaima, a critical military post, has changed hands repeatedly in recent weeks. Analysts believe its control could allow RSF to besiege el-Obeid, while the army hopes to secure it to reestablish supply lines.

More than 150,000 people have died in the war, and nearly 12 million have been displaced since fighting began in April 2023. Observers warn the battle for Kordofan could mark a turning point in the conflict’s trajectory.