Capability Gains Reshape Threat Rankings

A recent survey by the Israel-based Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) indicates a marked shift in Israeli public threat perceptions, with Türkiye now ranked as the country’s second-largest security concern after Iran. The findings point less to immediate confrontation and more to capability-based assessments driven by Türkiye’s expanding defense industry and regional posture.

Analysts reviewing the poll say the reassessment reflects sustained investment across three core domains: unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs and UCAVs), indigenous missile systems, and naval power. These platforms, increasingly associated with domestic production and export success, have elevated Türkiye’s standing from a regional actor to what respondents described as a “modern and powerful military rival.”

From Borders to Regional Reach

The survey underscores how Türkiye’s operational footprint beyond its own borders has factored into Israeli perceptions. Military engagements and security operations stretching from Syria to Africa were cited as evidence of a wider strategic reach, reinforcing the sense that Türkiye is no longer confined to a narrow defensive role.

This broader geography has contributed to Türkiye being viewed as more unpredictable than other regional players. In the JPPI ranking, Türkiye placed ahead of countries such as Lebanon and Qatar, reflecting concern not only about intent but also about demonstrated capacity across multiple theaters.

“Strategic Threat” After Gaza

Israel’s prolonged war in Gaza has sharpened these perceptions. According to the survey, Türkiye’s firm diplomatic stance on Gaza and domestic calls within Türkiye for stronger measures have shifted Israeli views from seeing Ankara as a political critic to framing it as a strategic threat.

The poll suggests this reassessment is linked to Israel’s growing sense of isolation during the Gaza conflict. As international pressure mounted, Türkiye’s positioning gained greater weight in Israeli public discourse, amplifying concern about how military capability and political posture might intersect.

U.S. Reliance Questioned

The JPPI survey also highlights changing attitudes toward the United States. About 50% of respondents said Israel should not accept U.S. demands unconditionally and should preserve freedom of action in security matters. This sentiment points to a recalibration rather than a rupture in the alliance.

Confidence in U.S. leadership, including President Donald Trump, appeared limited, reinforcing a preference for self-reliance. In this context, Türkiye’s rise is assessed against a backdrop of Israelis placing greater emphasis on their own military power as the primary guarantor of security in an increasingly complex regional environment.