Vladimir Putin’s renewed confidence in Russia’s war in Ukraine is increasingly shaped not by battlefield outcomes but by the tone and content of briefings delivered by his senior commanders. 

In late November 2025, Colonel-General Sergei Kuzovlev told Putin that Russian forces had “completed the liberation of Kupiansk” in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. 

Putin publicly confirmed the claim during a visit to the command post and later awarded Kuzovlev the Gold Star medal, Russia’s highest military honor. 

Yet within three days, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, filmed himself at a boundary marker in Kupiansk, stating, “I went to Kupiansk myself to show the world that Putin is lying.” 

Independent assessments cited in the source text say Russia has not fully controlled the town since early 2022.

“A Fundamental Misalignment”

The Kupiansk episode has revived concerns among Western officials and analysts that Russia’s military leadership is systematically feeding the Kremlin overly positive battlefield assessments. 

Two officials told the Financial Times that Russian military and security services routinely inflate Ukrainian casualty figures, emphasize Russia’s manpower and materiel advantages, and downplay tactical setbacks. 

While Putin also hears from economic advisers who describe the war’s strain on a sputtering economy, the optimistic military briefings have reinforced his belief that Russia can still win outright. 

U.S. vice-president JD Vance referred to this dynamic in October, describing “a fundamental misalignment of expectations” in which Moscow believes it is performing better militarily than it is, complicating any potential settlement.

Public Signals, Private Distortions

Since October, Putin has received six public briefings on the frontline—the most since the invasion began nearly four years ago—according to the independent Russian outlet Faridaily. 

At three of those appearances, he wore military uniform. 

During a four-and-a-half-hour press conference in December, Putin insisted Russian troops were “advancing along the whole frontline” and promised “new successes” by the end of the year. 

Asked about Zelensky’s Kupiansk video, Putin argued it had been filmed roughly 1 km outside the town and claimed Ukrainian forces controlled no part of it, citing dense drone activity over the area.

The Gerasimov Factor

The central figure in shaping these briefings is Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff and overall commander of the invasion. 

Gerasimov also oversaw the failed 2022 blitzkrieg on Kyiv, which ended in a retreat within a month. 

As the war dragged on, he and then defense minister Sergei Shoigu were accused by nationalist critics of shielding Putin from reality and relying on high-casualty “meat grinder” tactics. 

Analysts quoted in the Financial Times article describe a “self-sustaining loop of disinformation” that has had direct operational consequences, from repeated claims of capturing the same settlements to misrepresenting Ukrainian advances, including in Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024.

Cost, Control, and Continuity

Putin replaced Shoigu as defense minister in 2024 amid corruption purges but retained Gerasimov, a decision analysts link to political stability rather than battlefield innovation. 

Dara Massicot of the Carnegie Endowment said Gerasimov offers predictability, even at the cost of “extreme levels of casualties” and slow territorial gains. 

Russian military bloggers have openly mocked inflated claims, dubbing the disputed town “Schrödinger’s Kupiansk” and warning that “territories taken on credit” are paid for with soldiers’ lives. 

Despite this criticism, Putin has accepted high casualties as an acceptable price for prolonging the war and pursuing the subordination of Ukraine through military or political means.