Christmas Violence as Inflection Point

The escalation of Hindu majoritarian pressure on Christians marks a widening of India’s long-running religious polarization. Anti-Muslim rhetoric and violence have increased steadily since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2014, but new data and recent incidents show that Christians, who make up just 2.3 percent of India’s population, are increasingly targeted alongside Muslims, who account for 14.2 percent. Hindu hardline groups have leveraged conspiracy narratives and street-level mobilization to intimidate minority communities, testing India’s constitutional commitment to secularism.

On December 24, Hindu groups affiliated with the BJP called a shutdown in Raipur, the capital of Chhattisgarh, over allegations of “forced” Christian conversions. That same day, men armed with wooden sticks stormed a shopping mall, vandalized Christmas decorations, and disrupted celebrations. Police registered cases against 30 to 40 unidentified attackers but arrested only six. The arrested were released on bail within days and publicly welcomed with garlands and chants outside the jail, according to widely circulated videos on social media.

On Christmas Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited a Catholic church in New Delhi but did not condemn the violence.

Data Signals Structural Escalation

The Raipur incident seems to align with broader national trends. India Hate Lab, a project of the Washington-based Center for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH), recorded 1,318 hate speech events across India in 2025, averaging more than three per day. The total represents a 97 percent increase since 2023 and a 13 percent rise over 2024. While Muslims remained the primary target, hate speech events directed at Christians rose sharply from 115 in 2024 to 162 in 2025, a 41 percent increase.

Christmas-related intimidation was documented across at least seven states: Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh. In Madhya Pradesh, a BJP leader led a mob that disrupted a Christmas lunch for visually impaired children. In Kerala, schools reportedly received threats from officials linked to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), prompting a state probe. These incidents occurred despite Christians never exceeding 3 percent of India’s population between 1951 and the 2011 census, according to Pew Research Center data.

“Forced Conversion” as Frame for Mobilization

CSOH researcher Raqib Naik said the hate speech patterns mirror long-standing ideological themes promoted by the RSS, founded in 1925. The organization envisions India as a “Hindu nation,” a concept at odds with constitutional secularism. According to Naik, hate narratives frame Muslims and Christians as “dual threats” and as “foreign, demonic forces” undermining Hindu society. “Central to this is the ‘forced conversion’ narrative,” he said, adding that “the most pervasive theme across [the] 2025 incidents is the allegation that Christian missionaries are converting Hindus through inducement.”

These narratives have legislative consequences. Since 2014, multiple Indian states have enacted laws criminalizing coercive religious conversions, often framed by ministers as efforts to curb “love jihad.” In November 2025, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom cited India for “several discriminatory pieces of legislation,” including citizenship and conversion laws.

Political Incentives and Institutional Reach

India Hate Lab found that 88 percent of hate speech events occurred in states governed by the BJP or its allies. Five of the top 10 individuals linked to hate speech were associated with the BJP, including Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami were also named, with Dhami leading the list at 71 instances.

John Dayal, former president of the All India Catholic Union, said the incidents have created fear within Christian communities. “In Raipur, the archbishop was forced to advise all churches and Christian institutions to seek police protection during Christmas,” he said.

Author Ram Puniyani linked the surge to political dynamics following the 2024 general election, in which the BJP lost its parliamentary majority but retained power through allies. “The Hindutva foot soldiers have become more and more emboldened by the party’s return to power,” he said, warning that “hate speech eventually leads to violence.”