In the war-ravaged south of Lebanon, Hezbollah is fighting a new battle—not with arms, but at the ballot box. As local elections unfold, the Iran-backed militant group is hoping to shore up its political legitimacy following devastating losses in last year’s conflict with Israel. Campaign posters are plastered across rubble-strewn streets of towns like Nabatieh, where loyalists vow to “vote with blood,” even as many live without homes or compensation.

“This is a desert,” said Ali Tabaja, a 21-year-old voter from the destroyed village of Adaisseh, now casting his ballot in Nabatieh. The war, which began when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Hamas during the Gaza conflict in October 2023, culminated in a sweeping Israeli offensive that crippled Hezbollah’s military command and cost thousands of fighters’ lives.

Lebanon’s newly formed government is pushing for a state monopoly on arms—a demand enshrined in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire with Israel. Foreign donors have also made clear that reconstruction funds will only flow if Hezbollah agrees to disarm. “The war didn’t achieve the objective of downgrading Hezbollah’s popularity,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center, adding that many Shi’ites now see their future entwined with Hezbollah’s.

Foreign Minister Youssef Raji warned that Lebanon has been denied external aid until it curbs Hezbollah’s weapons—a stance echoed by Saudi Arabia and Gulf states that once funneled money into Lebanon.

Hezbollah Blames Government, Not Israel

While Hezbollah says its arms are now removed from the south, it has resisted full disarmament, insisting that Israel first withdraw from remaining Lebanese territories and halt its strikes. The group accuses Beirut of failing to unlock reconstruction aid and stalling Iran-backed funds, while Iran itself is financially weakened by renewed U.S. sanctions.

Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah criticized the Lebanese government for not taking “serious steps” to address reconstruction. Residents, too, feel abandoned. “The state did not stand by us,” said 71-year-old shopkeeper Khalil Tarhini, whose store was flattened in Nabatieh’s market and who has received no aid.

Diminished Aid, But Lasting Loyalty

Unlike the 2006 conflict, when aid from Iran and Gulf countries flowed freely, post-2023 assistance is sparse. Hezbollah claims to have helped 400,000 people with rent and basic repairs, but residents say this support is minimal. Tehran’s resources are limited, and Gulf Arab states consider Hezbollah a terrorist entity, cutting financial ties since 2016.

Still, the group’s popularity in core Shi’ite areas appears intact. “Many Shia now feel their fate is tied to Hezbollah’s fate,” noted Hage Ali. As Lebanon’s leaders grapple with economic ruin and political polarization, Hezbollah's survival at the polls may prove just as consequential as any battlefield gain.