As the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran nears, diplomatic channels remain blocked by rigid red lines, with both sides refusing to budge on the core issue of uranium enrichment.

Trump insists Iran must abandon uranium enrichment on its territory, even at low levels, citing nuclear weapon proliferation concerns. Tehran, however, considers enrichment a national right protected under international law and has vowed to continue it regardless of any external pressure.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has rejected any proposal that limits enrichment and emphasized that Iran does not need U.S. permission to make sovereign decisions. Iranian MP Hossein Maleki called enrichment a “parliamentary red line,” asserting Iran would defend its nuclear sites if attacked.

Al Jazeera Outlines Four Scenarios

• Interim Agreement: If either party compromises on red lines—such as Iran agreeing to limited enrichment under Gulf or international oversight—an interim deal may emerge.
• Continued Stalemate: If both sides stick to their demands, talks may stall further, especially with Iran continuing cooperation with the IAEA while resisting Western leverage.
• Snapback Sanctions (“Trigger Mechanism”): Should the deadline pass without progress, the U.S. and allies may invoke UNSC Resolution 2231 to reimpose full sanctions on Iran.
• Military Confrontation: Least likely but possible if diplomacy collapses and Israel or the U.S. initiates a strike—though Iran warns it is fully prepared to retaliate.

Escalation Risks and Diplomatic Gridlock

Iranian officials caution that insistence on “zero enrichment” may lead to dangerous escalation. Trump continues to float the military option but claims he prefers a diplomatic resolution. Meanwhile, Iranian negotiators stress that any agreement must include sanctions relief and recognition of enrichment rights.

Professor Rahman Qahramanpour of Tehran University sees little trust between the sides and notes that regional mediation may be the only way forward: “The real challenge is mutual political credibility.”