Senior U.S. and international officials have acknowledged they do not know where Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium is located, days after American bunker-buster strikes damaged key nuclear facilities, casting doubt on President Trump’s claims of obliterating Tehran’s atomic program.

Intelligence Indicates Uranium Was Moved

Vice President JD Vance said Iran’s nuclear weaponization capabilities had been “substantially set back,” but conceded the uranium stockpile—enough to build 9–10 weapons—remains unaccounted for. Israeli and American intelligence now believe Iran secretly moved 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium prior to the attack.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi confirmed that inspectors last saw the uranium about a week before Israeli strikes began. When asked if the fuel had been relocated, Grossi replied, “I do,” referring to Iran's potential concealment of the casks, which are small enough to fit in a few cars.

Fordow and Natanz Severely Damaged but Not Destroyed

While the U.S. used 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrators to hit Fordow, analysts note the site may not be fully destroyed. Satellite images showed multiple bomb penetration points, but Fordow’s deeply buried centrifuge halls might have survived.

At Natanz, Israeli airstrikes reportedly destroyed an aboveground enrichment facility and disrupted power systems, likely rendering many centrifuges inoperable. However, Iran is already building a deeper, more fortified replacement site further south.

Inspections Halted, Uncertainty Grows

With IAEA inspections suspended due to the conflict, international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program is at a standstill. Analysts fear the Iranians may use this period to obscure equipment, fortify sites, or advance undeclared facilities.

Historically, diplomacy—not military action—has provided the most transparency. The 2015 nuclear accord enabled international oversight until it was dismantled under Trump’s administration. Since then, Iran has ramped up centrifuge output and enriched uranium to levels near weapons-grade.

Strategic Setback or Future Acceleration?

Despite the damage, former Pentagon and CIA official Mick Mulroy warned the strike might only delay Iran’s program by “two to five years.” Experts also noted that Iran’s nearly two-decade-long pursuit—far longer than any prior nuclear state—might gain renewed urgency due to the latest attacks.

The uncertainty now surrounding Iran’s stockpile location and its enrichment capacity may intensify regional tensions and complicate any diplomatic path forward.