Europe’s Far Right is Rising, but Power Remains a Different Test

Europe’s far-right parties are gaining ground, but their next obstacle is harder than winning votes: turning support into power.

September’s German state elections have brought that question into sharp focus, while France approaches a presidential contest and Britain’s Reform UK tests whether polling strength can translate into parliamentary seats.

The parties share an emphasis on immigration and dissatisfaction with established politics.

They diverge over economic policy, Russia and Ukraine, the European Union, and how much to moderate their positions to govern.

Their prospects also depend on political systems that reward very different kinds of success.

Germany: Winning Votes, Seeking Partners

Alternative for Germany has the strongest recent election results of the three.

It won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats on 17.2%.

With 39 seats, it was three short of a majority.

Two weeks later, the AfD finished first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 37.9%. The CDU received 4.9%, its worst result in a German state election since World War II.

Those victories have intensified the question of whether another party will help the AfD form a state government.

Mainstream parties have maintained a “firewall” against formal coalitions with it.

In Saxony-Anhalt, that leaves the party close to a majority but without a clear route to office.

Alice Weidel, the AfD’s co-leader, is its most prominent national figure.

Its eastern organizations have often taken harder-line positions, including on immigration and support for Ukraine.

Parts of the party have been classified as extremist by German domestic intelligence.

The stakes extend beyond one state administration.

An AfD government in eastern Germany would give the party an institutional foothold while testing whether its electoral strength can overcome the refusal of other parties to govern with it.

For now, a first-place finish does not settle who takes office.

France: A Presidential Opportunity

France’s National Rally faces a different test.

Marine Le Pen and party president Jordan Bardella are preparing for the 2027 presidential election, where reaching the runoff could put the party closer to executive power than at any previous point in its history.

National Rally has spent years trying to broaden its appeal.

Le Pen abandoned the demand for France to leave the EU and softened parts of the party’s economic message.

Bardella offers a younger public face and a possible alternative candidate.

Le Pen’s legal position changed in July.

An appeals court upheld her conviction over the misuse of European Parliament funds but shortened her period of electoral ineligibility, allowing her to pursue a 2027 candidacy.

She has said she will appeal the conviction.

A place in the runoff would still be only one stage of the contest. A second-round opponent could draw support from voters seeking to block National Rally, as has happened in past elections.

Victory would present another challenge: governing alongside a fragmented National Assembly.

Britain: Polling Strength Meets the Electoral Map

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has helped reshape the contest on Britain’s right, particularly over immigration.

Yet its support has recently fluctuated, and a nationwide vote share offers no direct measure of how many parliamentary seats it could win.

A YouGov poll conducted on September 20–21 put Labour at 23% and both Reform and the Conservatives at 21%.

A separate YouGov seat model projected a hung parliament and a weaker result for Reform than its earlier polling peaks had suggested.

Britain’s first-past-the-post system makes local distribution decisive.

Reform could attract a large share of votes across the country yet win far fewer seats if its support is spread too thinly.

Its ability to replace the Conservatives as the main party of the right depends on winning constituencies, not simply overtaking them in a national survey.

The party also faces questions about its organization and funding controversies.

Farage remains its central figure, giving Reform a recognizable voice while leaving its readiness for government under scrutiny.

A Movement With Different Outcomes

Italy demonstrates that a party from this political spectrum can reach and retain national office.

Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy has led a coalition government since 2022, combining a hard line on migration with cooperation with the EU and NATO on key issues.

Elsewhere, gains have proved less durable. Austria’s Freedom Party remains a strong opposition force after finishing first in its 2024 election.

In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats won 62 seats in September’s parliamentary vote, down from 73 in 2022.

The divisions are visible at European level, too. Parties in this broad political family sit in separate European Parliament groups: European Conservatives and Reformists, Patriots for Europe, and Europe of Sovereign Nations.

Reform UK, based outside the EU, is not part of that parliamentary arrangement.

The coming tests are therefore national rather than collective. The AfD must find partners, National Rally must win a runoff, and Reform must convert votes into constituencies.

Each has helped change the political debate. None can rely on that alone to take power.