As geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China reshapes the global order, the European Union faces a stark choice: reform decisively or risk being sidelined on the world stage.

That is the central message of a new report led by Tony Blair and Jamie Dimon, which argues that the convergence of strategic, economic and technological shifts has created a global environment with no historical precedent. The study draws on extensive discussions with political leaders, business executives and civil society figures across regions.

Europe Urged To Stand On Its Own

Blair, who served as British prime minister from 1997 to 2007, and Dimon, the long-serving head of JPMorgan Chase, argue that Europe must deepen integration to prioritise defence readiness and sustainable economic growth.

“If Europe cannot stand on its own against Russia, it will be even less capable of managing systemic competition with the United States or China,” the report states. “Reform is not optional; it is essential for relevance.”

The authors warn that a long-standing model — relying on Washington for security while expanding economic ties with Beijing — is no longer viable in an era of intensified great-power competition.

EU Leaders Echo Reform Message

The report’s publication coincides with an EU summit focused on funding for Ukraine and assessing how the bloc should respond to what officials describe as a “changed landscape for rules-based economic relations”.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly argued that Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security, a view increasingly shared across EU capitals as US President Donald Trump applies pressure on the bloc, including through a new National Security Strategy.

While Europe’s share of global GDP is shrinking, the report notes that the United States faces a similar long-term decline, underscoring the need for structural adaptation on both sides of the Atlantic.

A World Without Precedent

The study paints a broader picture of a global system being reshaped simultaneously by geopolitical rivalry, artificial intelligence and the rise of political populism.

Alexander George, an author of the report titled World Rewired: Navigating a Multi-Speed, Multipolar Order, said traditional historical comparisons offer little guidance. “We’re living in a world that has never actually existed before,” he said, describing the new environment as “a 3D chess board”.

According to the report, the US retains substantial and enduring power but faces its most serious vulnerabilities domestically, where political instability complicates efforts to manage rising debt. China’s future influence, meanwhile, will depend on whether it can sustain growth despite mounting demographic pressures and high debt levels.

Middle Powers Caught In The Squeeze

The analysis also highlights the growing challenges facing middle powers such as India and Gulf states. It points to steep US tariffs imposed on India over its purchases of Russian oil as evidence of the limits of a “multi-alignment” strategy.

At the same time, the United Arab Emirates’ efforts to deepen technology ties with the US are cited as an example of how countries are increasingly being forced to choose between Washington and Beijing, particularly in critical technology sectors.

Backed By Major Institutions

The report was jointly produced by JPMorgan Chase and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. JPMorgan recently launched a $1.5 trillion, 10-year initiative aimed at supporting industries considered vital to US economic security and resilience.

Blair serves as chair of JPMorgan’s international council, which advises the bank on global strategy and geopolitical risk.