Democrats Lead or Tie in All Seven Senate Battlegrounds in Final Polls

The New York Times and Siena University surveyed 5,708 likely voters between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1, on the eve of the Nov. 3 midterms. Democrats led in six states and were effectively tied in a seventh, Iowa. Margins of error run from 3.4 to 5 points, depending on the state, according to Siena.

The Arithmetic of a Majority

Republicans hold a 53–47 majority. To take control, Democrats must defend every seat they hold and flip at least four Republican-held ones, as Clash Report’s midterms explainer lays out.

The Times called that an uphill battle because many of the targets sit in Republican strongholds. Of the seven states polled, only Michigan is held by a Democrat.

“If the polls are accurate and these trends hold, Democrats would win control of the Senate,” the Times wrote. CNN’s Harry Enten, in his final forecast, projects a 52–48 Democratic Senate, Clash Report reported.

Michigan: Widest Gap

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 53% to 42%, the widest gap of the seven. The seat is currently held by a Democrat.

The poll was taken almost entirely before a Democratic feud erupted in the state this weekend. Rep. Haley Stevens, El-Sayed’s primary rival, endorsed Rogers on Sunday.

Texas: Talarico Ahead of Paxton

In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

Paxton has the worst image of any candidate in the survey, with 54% of likely voters viewing him unfavorably and 33% favorably. Talarico is at 49% favorable and 39% unfavorable.

Sen. Ted Cruz said on Oct. 30 that “Texas is excruciatingly close,” Clash Report reported.

The Times’s Nate Cohn wrote that Talarico leads among Hispanic voters 65% to 27%, a sharp swing from 2024, when they split evenly in the presidential race.

Maine, Ohio and Kansas

In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 45%. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44%.

The Ohio race has drawn about half a billion dollars in spending, with Republicans outspending Democrats by $80 million on ads, according to AdImpact, as cited by the Times. CNN’s poll average has Brown ahead 50% to 45%.

In Kansas, Adam Hamilton leads Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%, with Libertarian David Graham at 4%. The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

The Times tied Kansas to farmers’ frustration over diesel prices that rose after the Iran war and the administration’s decision to drop import tariffs on foreign beef. Hamilton has the support of 13% of Republicans there.

Alaska and Iowa

In Alaska, Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%. She is the only Democrat in the set whose standing has slipped since the Times’s September polls.

The poll was mostly completed before the Times reported that operatives aligned with Peltola’s campaign recruited another candidate named Dan Sullivan to draw votes from the incumbent.

Iowa is effectively tied, with Josh Turek at 48% and Rep. Ashley Hinson at 47%. Democrats improved on their September numbers in six of the seven states, with Alaska the exception.

What Is Driving the Shift

Only 38% of likely voters across the seven states approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance. He won five of the states by double digits two years ago.

Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on the cost of living across the battlegrounds and lead on it in every state. They also lead among independents in every state, including Iowa.

Republican Senate candidates are winning 56% of white voters without college degrees. The Times estimates Trump won 66% of that group in 2024. They are taking only about a quarter of younger and Latino voters.

In every state except Maine, the Democratic candidate is viewed more favorably than the Republican.

What Could Go Wrong

A lead is usually considered clear when it exceeds about twice the margin of error. By that measure, only the Michigan and Texas leads qualify, and Alaska and Iowa are within the margin of error.

Voters who decided only in the past month favored Republicans by nine points, the Times said. Six years ago, Collins trailed in every survey and still won re-election comfortably.

Cohn wrote that “there’s precedent in the Trump era for polls to overestimate Democrats.” He added that Democrats lead by enough to win the Senate even if the polls miss by as much as in 2016 or 2020.

“With so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,” said Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute.

The survey did not include North Carolina, where polls have long found the Democrat leading and Republicans have pared back their spending, the Times said.