CNN's Harry Enten Projects Democrats Win 237 House Seats and 52 in Senate

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten has released his final forecast for the Nov. 3 midterm elections. He projects Democrats winning 237 House seats to Republicans' 198. In the Senate, he projects a 52–48 Democratic majority.

Enten gave the forecast in a video CNN posted on Oct. 30. It is his own aggregate of models, not an official CNN poll. He calls the seat totals his most likely scenario and does not claim to be exactly right.

The House Forecast

Enten gives Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House, up eight points from his August forecast. He presented the seat total as a single number rather than a range.

He leans on several indicators. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by about nine points in his data, up from five a year ago. Enten says Democrats probably need to win the national House vote by about four points because of Republican redistricting.

Race raters like Cook and Sabato have 224 seats at least leaning Democratic, he says. That compares with 193 at this point in 2022.

The party with the bigger primary turnout won the House in every midterm from 2006 to 2022. Democrats have that edge now.

Enten also warns that forecasts have overshot before. Race raters projected 242 Democratic seats in 2020, and Democrats won 222. He also cites public mood: Congress approval is 14%, and 45% say their own member does not deserve reelection.

The Senate Path Runs Through Red States

Enten gives Democrats a 71% chance of winning the Senate, up 19 points since August. Republicans hold a 53–47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. His map flips Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina and Maine.

That adds up to 53 Democratic seats. Enten says the 52–48 figure is probabilistic, because one of those races may not go blue.

He says Maine, Kansas, Iowa and Alaska are very close. "It wouldn't surprise me if any of these seats went the other way," he adds.

Republicans have beaten their final Senate polling averages by 4.1 points in states Trump won, from 2018 to 2024. If that repeats, Enten says, Republicans could hold the chamber.

How Other Forecasters Compare

The Cook Political Report said on Oct. 30 that Democrats could flip 12 to 25 House seats, reaching as many as 240. Cook calls Democrats the slight favorites for the Senate, with seven races still toss-ups.

Sabato's Crystal Ball counted 225 House seats at least leaning Democratic and 17 toss-ups on Oct. 27. It sees Democrats with a narrow inside track to 51 or 52 Senate seats. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 82% chance of winning the House, The Hill reports.

What Is at Stake on Nov. 3

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on Nov. 3. Republicans hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent and two vacancies, ABC News reports. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reach 218.

Forecasts are not results, and polls and race ratings can miss in either direction. Sen. Ted Cruz has warned of a Republican "bloodbath" if only early votes were counted.