Democrats Lead Generic Ballot by 8-9 Points Days Before Midterms

Democrats lead Republicans by about 8 to 9 points on the generic ballot, days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. The RealClearPolling average puts the gap at 8.2 points. Silver Bulletin has it at 8.9.

The lead shows up across the spectrum. Right-leaning firms such as Rasmussen Reports, Cygnal and RMG Research all show Democrats ahead in their latest national polls.

Forecasters see Democrats as heavy favorites to flip the House. The Senate is closer, with seven races in the Toss Up column at Cook Political Report.

Generic Ballot by Pollster

The generic ballot asks voters which party they would back for Congress, without naming candidates. The table shows each firm’s latest national poll. LV means likely voters, RV means registered voters, and all dates are 2026.

Margins run from D+4 in Harvard CAPS/Harris to D+12 in the Verasight poll for Strength In Numbers. Harvard CAPS/Harris and ActiVote report two-way totals that add up to 100%.

Quantus Insights, Big Data Poll and McLaughlin & Associates have no October national poll that we could find. Their latest releases are shown. Leans reflect how each firm is commonly described, not a judgment on its accuracy.

Figures come from each pollster’s release where available. Others come from RealClearPolling, Ballotpedia and the New York Times poll database, as republished by People’s Poll.

What the Polling Averages Say

Averages weight pollsters and voter screens differently. Still, every major one lands in a narrow band.

Republicans won the 2024 national House vote by 2.7 points, New York Magazine noted. Their current majority is narrow.

Republicans argue the polls undercount their voters. House Speaker Mike Johnson has said the polls are off, Time reported. Polls underestimated Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024, per PoliTalking.US, but errors are less common in midterm years.

Key Senate Races

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four. Cook rates seven races as Toss Ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Michigan is the only one Democrats are defending, per GV Wire.

Silver Bulletin figures come from New York Magazine, and RealClearPolling figures from GV Wire. Four of the eight Democratic leads in the Silver Bulletin averages are three points or less.

The Washington Post all but disavowed its own Kansas poll, which showed Hamilton up 10, New York Magazine reported. Pollsters struggled to get Republicans to complete the survey.

Alaska could also delay the result. New York Magazine says the Republican governor is threatening to withhold certification of a Peltola win. See our report on the claims about a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

House and Senate Forecasts

Silver said on Oct. 30 that Democrats’ Senate odds sit in the "mid to high 70s," per the Daily Beast. The Crystal Ball said it will publish final ratings on Nov. 2.

Prediction markets price a full Democratic sweep at about 67.5% on Kalshi and 72% on Polymarket, Prediction Authority reported. These are trader odds, not polls. Sabato said Democrats have the inside track to a Senate majority "albeit narrowly at 51 or 52 seats."

The midterms also matter for foreign policy. Axios reported that Trump may be more inclined to hit Iran after midterm losses. Senator Ted Cruz has warned of a Republican bloodbath.

Trump’s Approval Rating

Silver Bulletin’s average has Trump at 37.4% approval and 60.2% disapproval, per New York Magazine. Poliwave’s average, through Oct. 29, shows 38.6% approve and 59.6% disapprove.

Reuters/Ipsos found 32% approval on Oct. 22-26, after a record-low 31% on Oct. 16-19. Rasmussen Reports found 41% on Oct. 23-29, and Harvard CAPS/Harris found 41% on Oct. 24-26, per Poliwave. Gallup stopped publishing presidential approval in February 2026.