Trump May Be More Inclined to Hit Iran After Midterm Losses, Axios Reports

Trump may be more inclined to order a major military operation against Iran if Republicans lose badly in the Nov. 3 midterms, Axios reports. The report cites a U.S. official. A White House official said election results will not be a factor in his decision-making.

What the Official Told Axios

“If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised he will do something bold,” the unnamed U.S. official said. The official said that is what everyone is telling Iran. “Their best shot to get a deal is right now.”

Republican worries are public. Sen. Ted Cruz warned on Oct. 30 that Republicans would lose heavily if only early votes were counted. Clash Report could not independently verify the official's account.

Qatar Pushes for a Deal

The remarks appear in an Axios report on Qatari mediation. Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday, diplomatic sources told Axios. Talks are due to continue in Doha on Saturday.

A diplomatic source described “positive progress” and said Qatar was in regular contact with the White House. The mediators want both sides to agree on reciprocal steps over a few days that would restore direct talks.

Two demands have stalled the effort, a U.S. official told Axios. Washington wants nuclear concessions as part of any return to talks. Iran wants the U.S. to first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow oil sales.

Qatar is also urging Iran to let U.N. inspectors visit its bombed nuclear sites. Axios says the U.S. would respond with some sanctions relief.

Split Inside Trump's Circle

Axios reports that views differ in Trump's inner circle, citing a U.S. official. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are reportedly highly skeptical of any nuclear deal with Iran's current government. They reportedly want it weakened further, including through more strikes.

Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want talks to resume, the official said. Vance has reportedly reached out to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is urging Trump to let the economic pressure campaign play out first.

What Trump Has Said

Trump told reporters on Friday: “There are talks. They want to talk. They keep talking. ... We have time, frankly. It's a war, but it is not a typical war.”

He told Kansas City radio station KCMO that the war is “going to get wrapped up soon.” “We need a guarantee there'll never be a nuclear weapon,” he said, according to Reuters. Trump said on Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms.

What Is at Stake

Axios says the U.S. is days away from a possible operation that would inflict enormous damage on Iran. Retaliatory strikes on Israel and Gulf states would be likely, it adds. Gulf officials have reportedly said strikes could resume as soon as Nov. 4.

Iran has vowed to attack oil and gas facilities in five Gulf states if the U.S. hits its energy infrastructure. They are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Saudi and Turkish leaders have urged Trump to allow more time for diplomacy, Axios reports. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying for a joint operation immediately after the election.

NPR reported on Friday that two U.S. aircraft carriers are in the Arabian Sea, with a third on the way. Tensions also persist in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed four tankers hit mines on Friday, a claim AP could not verify.