According to Reuters, the classified Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessment places regime continuity at the center of U.S. thinking on Venezuela’s political future. According to Reuters, the document presented to U.S. President Donald Trump concluded that senior loyalists of President Nicolas Maduro were “best positioned to maintain stability” should Maduro lose power. The finding underscores a core constraint shaping U.S. policy: the trade-off between political change and near-term stability in a country facing prolonged institutional stress. Two sources briefed on the matter confirmed the assessment, speaking on condition of anonymity, and said it was shared with a small group of Trump’s senior national security team.

The assessment specifically named Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as a central figure capable of preserving state functionality. The analysis was described as one reason—one among several considerations—why Trump opted to back Rodriguez over opposition leader María Corina Machado. Reuters noted that the conclusion aligns with intelligence-driven risk management rather than ideological alignment, emphasizing continuity of governance structures over abrupt political transition.

“Routinely Briefed” on Global Politics

The White House declined to confirm the classified report but did not dispute its existence. In a written response, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “President Trump is routinely briefed on domestic political dynamics all over the world.” She added that “the president and his national security team are making realistic decisions to finally ensure Venezuela aligns with the interests of the United States, and becomes a better country for the Venezuelan people.” The statement reflects an official framing that prioritizes realism and alignment with U.S. interests, without directly endorsing any Venezuelan political faction.

Reuters attributed the original reporting to Steve Holland in Washington and Rajveer Singh Pardesi in Bengaluru, with editing by Chris Reese and Michael Perry. The Wall Street Journal first published the exclusive, which Reuters later confirmed through its own sourcing. The reliance on two independent sources underscores the sensitivity of intelligence assessments shaping executive decision-making.

Stability Versus Opposition Leverage

The CIA’s conclusion highlights a structural dilemma: opposition leaders may command moral or popular legitimacy, but entrenched regime actors often control the levers of power necessary to prevent fragmentation. By assessing Maduro loyalists as better suited to manage a transition, the intelligence community signaled concern over potential instability, fragmentation, or governance gaps. The briefing reportedly weighed these risks against the prospects of opposition leadership, ultimately favoring continuity as the lower-risk option.

This approach does not amount to public endorsement, but it does inform strategic posture. As Reuters reported, intelligence assessments such as this one can shape presidential decisions even when they remain classified and politically sensitive. The episode illustrates how U.S. policy toward Venezuela is being calibrated less around maximal political change and more around controlled outcomes under constrained conditions.